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Big Bash League · 2025/26 · Men
4 Jan 2026 · T20
Melbourne Cricket Ground · Venue photographRecorded result
Melbourne Stars started on 55%; Melbourne Stars batted first.
Melbourne Stars's chances ranged from 6% to 74% during the match (Melbourne Renegades: 26% to 94%).
Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Rogerscaught · Jake Fraser-McGurk · C Stow 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jake Fraser-McGurk · b C Stow | 15 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 115.38 |
| Sam Harpercaught · Jake Fraser-McGurk · Gurinder Sandhu 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Jake Fraser-McGurk · b Gurinder Sandhu | 20 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 200.00 |
| Campbell Kellawaycaught · Gurinder Sandhu · C Stow 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Gurinder Sandhu · b C Stow | 33 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 122.22 |
| Blake Macdonaldcaught · Mohammad Rizwan · Will Sutherland 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mohammad Rizwan · b Will Sutherland | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
 Glenn Maxwellcaught · Matthew Spoors · Hasan Khan0 fours · 0 sixes |
| caught · Matthew Spoors · b Hasan Khan |
| 1 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 25.00 |
 Marcus Stoiniscaught · Josh Brown · Gurinder Sandhu2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Josh Brown · b Gurinder Sandhu | 16 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 114.29 |
|---|
| Hilton Cartwrightcaught · Will Sutherland · Gurinder Sandhu 2 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Will Sutherland · b Gurinder Sandhu | 28 | 19 | 2 | 2 | 147.37 |
|---|
 Tom Curranrun out · Mohammad Rizwan, Gurinder Sandhu · Gurinder Sandhu5 fours · 2 sixes | run out · Mohammad Rizwan, Gurinder Sandhu | 38 | 18 | 5 | 2 | 211.11 |
|---|
| Mitchell Swepsonbowled · Gurinder Sandhu 0 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Gurinder Sandhu | 10 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 200.00 |
|---|
 Haris Raufnot out1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 4 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
 Peter Siddlenot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hasan Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 26 | 1 | 6.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Jason Behrendorff0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 11.33 | 1 | 0 |
| Gurinder Sandhu0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 41 | 4 | 10.25 | 2 | 0 |
| C Stow0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 24 | 2 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Will Sutherland0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 32 | 1 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Matthew Spoors0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 14.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-30 (Sam Harper, 2.4) · 2-42 (Tom Rogers, 4.5) · 3-52 (Blake Macdonald, 6.4) · 4-55 (Glenn Maxwell, 7.4) · 5-80 (Marcus Stoinis, 11.0) · 6-109 (Campbell Kellaway, 14.3) · 7-126 (Hilton Cartwright, 16.2) · 8-167 (Mitchell Swepson, 19.2) · 9-171 (Tom Curran, 19.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 14 | 19/0 |
| 3 | 12 | 31/1 |
| 4 | 6 | 37/1 |
| 5 | 5 | 42/2 |
| 6 | 8 | 50/2 |
| 7 | 4 | 54/3 |
| 8 | 6 | 60/4 |
| 9 | 9 | 69/4 |
| 10 | 3 | 72/4 |
| 11 | 8 | 80/5 |
| 12 | 6 | 86/5 |
| 13 | 7 | 93/5 |
| 14 | 14 | 107/5 |
| 15 | 4 | 111/6 |
| 16 | 14 | 125/6 |
| 17 | 10 | 135/7 |
| 18 | 14 | 149/7 |
| 19 | 12 | 161/7 |
| 20 | 12 | 173/9 |
Will Sutherland: @evermorestation on Twitter · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mohammad Rizwan: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Haris Rauf: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Jason Behrendorff: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Oliver Peake: DustyNail · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marcus Stoinis: www.davidmolloyphotography.com from Sydney, Australia · CC BY 2.0
Tom Curran: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Peter Siddle: PrivateMusings · CC BY-SA 2.5
Glenn Maxwell: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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