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Photo: Electricmaster
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Big Bash League · 2025/26 · Men
4 Jan 2026 · T20
Melbourne Cricket Ground · Venue photographRecorded result
Melbourne Stars started on 55%; Melbourne Stars batted first.
Melbourne Stars's chances ranged from 6% to 74% during the match (Melbourne Renegades: 26% to 94%).
Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Brownbowled · Mitchell Swepson 9 fours · 4 sixes | bowled · b Mitchell Swepson | 84 | 48 | 9 | 4 | 175.00 |
| Tim Seifertcaught · Hilton Cartwright · Haris Rauf 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Hilton Cartwright · b Haris Rauf | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 120.00 |
 Mohammad Rizwancaught · Tom Curran · Haris Rauf4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Curran · b Haris Rauf | 41 | 38 | 4 | 0 | 107.89 |
| Jake Fraser-McGurkcaught · Marcus Stoinis · Peter Siddle 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Marcus Stoinis · b Peter Siddle | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 44.44 |
| Hasan Khancaught · Tom Rogers · Peter Siddle2 fours · 0 sixes |
| caught · Tom Rogers · b Peter Siddle |
| 11 |
| 6 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 183.33 |
 Oliver Peakerun out · Sam Harper, Blake Macdonald · Haris Rauf0 fours · 1 sixes | run out · Sam Harper, Blake Macdonald | 10 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 200.00 |
|---|
 Will Sutherlandnot out0 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 19* | 7 | 0 | 2 | 271.43 |
|---|
| Matthew Spoorsnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 1 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Glenn Maxwell0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 7.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Tom Curran0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 8.33 | 1 | 0 |
 Haris Rauf0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 44 | 2 | 11.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Peter Siddle0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 39 | 2 | 9.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Mitchell Swepson0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 20 | 1 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Marcus Stoinis0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.5 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 12.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-24 (Tim Seifert, 2.3) · 2-127 (Josh Brown, 14.1) · 3-136 (Mohammad Rizwan, 16.2) · 4-147 (Hasan Khan, 17.3) · 5-148 (Jake Fraser-McGurk, 17.5) · 6-161 (Oliver Peake, 19.0)
Recorded target: 174 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 9/0 |
| 2 | 10 | 19/0 |
| 3 | 14 | 33/1 |
| 4 | 10 | 43/1 |
| 5 | 3 | 46/1 |
| 6 | 12 | 58/1 |
| 7 | 6 | 64/1 |
| 8 | 5 | 69/1 |
| 9 | 6 | 75/1 |
| 10 | 6 | 81/1 |
| 11 | 14 | 95/1 |
| 12 | 15 | 110/1 |
| 13 | 7 | 117/1 |
| 14 | 10 | 127/1 |
| 15 | 4 | 131/2 |
| 16 | 4 | 135/2 |
| 17 | 4 | 139/3 |
| 18 | 10 | 149/5 |
| 19 | 12 | 161/6 |
| 20 | 16 | 177/6 |
Will Sutherland: @evermorestation on Twitter · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mohammad Rizwan: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Haris Rauf: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Jason Behrendorff: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Oliver Peake: DustyNail · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marcus Stoinis: www.davidmolloyphotography.com from Sydney, Australia · CC BY 2.0
Tom Curran: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Peter Siddle: PrivateMusings · CC BY-SA 2.5
Glenn Maxwell: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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