Melbourne StarsversusMelbourne Renegades

4 Jan 2026 · T20

Melbourne Cricket Ground · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Melbourne Renegades won by 4 wickets

Melbourne Stars20.0 overs173/9 Melbourne Renegades19.5 overs177/6 Melbourne Cricket Ground ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Melbourne Stars started on 55%; Melbourne Stars batted first.

Melbourne Stars’s chance of winning (%) · Melbourne Renegades is the rest

Melbourne Stars's chances ranged from 6% to 74% during the match (Melbourne Renegades: 26% to 94%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 18.4: Haris Rauf to OJ Peake, six by OJ Peake. Melbourne Renegades up from 26% to 49%.
2nd inns 19.1: MP Stoinis to W Sutherland, six by W Sutherland. Melbourne Renegades up from 30% to 71%.
2nd inns 19.5: MP Stoinis to W Sutherland, six by W Sutherland. Melbourne Renegades up from 74% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.