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The Ashes · 2025/26 · Men
21 Nov 2025 · Test
Perth Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Weatheraldlbw · Jofra Archer 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Jofra Archer | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Marnus Labuschagnebowled · Jofra Archer1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Jofra Archer | 9 | 41 | 1 | 0 | 21.95 |
 Steve Smithcaught · Harry Brook · Brydon Carse2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Harry Brook · b Brydon Carse | 17 | 49 | 2 | 0 | 34.69 |
 |
| caught · Jamie Smith · b Brydon Carse |
| 2 |
| 6 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 33.33 |
 Travis Headcaught · Brydon Carse · Ben Stokes1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Brydon Carse · b Ben Stokes | 21 | 35 | 1 | 0 | 60.00 |
|---|
 Cameron Greencaught · Jamie Smith · Ben Stokes2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jamie Smith · b Ben Stokes | 24 | 50 | 2 | 0 | 48.00 |
|---|
 Alex Careycaught · Brydon Carse · Ben Stokes3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Brydon Carse · b Ben Stokes | 26 | 26 | 3 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
 Mitchell Starccaught · Brydon Carse · Ben Stokes0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Brydon Carse · b Ben Stokes | 12 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
 Nathan Lyoncaught · Ben Duckett · Brydon Carse0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ben Duckett · b Brydon Carse | 4 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 19.05 |
|---|
 Scott Bolandcaught · Harry Brook · Ben Stokes0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Harry Brook · b Ben Stokes | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Brendan Doggettnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 7* | 30 | 0 | 0 | 23.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 8 · wides: 0 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jofra Archer4 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 4 | 11 | 2 | 1.22 | 0 | 0 |
| Gus Atkinson5 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 12.0 | 5 | 24 | 0 | 2.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Mark Wood1 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 8.0 | 1 | 21 | 0 | 2.63 | 0 | 1 |
 Brydon Carse1 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.2 | 1 | 45 | 3 | 4.35 | 0 | 1 |
 Ben Stokes1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 1 | 23 | 5 | 3.83 | 0 | 0 |
1-0 (Jake Weatherald, 0.2) · 2-28 (Marnus Labuschagne, 14.2) · 3-30 (Steve Smith, 15.5) · 4-31 (Usman Khawaja, 17.2) · 5-76 (Travis Head, 29.1) · 6-83 (Cameron Green, 31.1) · 7-118 (Mitchell Starc, 36.0) · 8-121 (Alex Carey, 37.4) · 9-121 (Scott Boland, 38.0) · 10-132 (Nathan Lyon, 45.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/1 |
| 2 | 0 | 0/1 |
| 3 | 0 | 0/1 |
| 4 | 0 | 0/1 |
| 5 | 5 | 5/1 |
| 6 | 1 | 6/1 |
| 7 | 1 | 7/1 |
| 8 | 2 | 9/1 |
| 9 | 3 | 12/1 |
| 10 | 3 | 15/1 |
| 11 | 0 | 15/1 |
| 12 | 4 | 19/1 |
| 13 | 1 | 20/1 |
| 14 | 8 | 28/1 |
| 15 | 1 | 29/2 |
| 16 | 2 | 31/3 |
| 17 | 0 | 31/3 |
| 18 | 0 | 31/4 |
| 19 | 7 | 38/4 |
| 20 | 3 | 41/4 |
| 21 | 1 | 42/4 |
| 22 | 6 | 48/4 |
| 23 | 1 | 49/4 |
| 24 | 4 | 53/4 |
| 25 | 8 | 61/4 |
| 26 | 8 | 69/4 |
| 27 | 0 | 69/4 |
| 28 | 3 | 72/4 |
| 29 | 4 | 76/4 |
| 30 | 3 | 79/5 |
| 31 | 4 | 83/5 |
| 32 | 8 | 91/6 |
| 33 | 9 | 100/6 |
| 34 | 4 | 104/6 |
| 35 | 8 | 112/6 |
| 36 | 6 | 118/7 |
| 37 | 2 | 120/7 |
| 38 | 1 | 121/9 |
| 39 | 2 | 123/9 |
| 40 | 1 | 124/9 |
| 41 | 2 | 126/9 |
| 42 | 2 | 128/9 |
| 43 | 3 | 131/9 |
| 44 | 1 | 132/9 |
| 45 | 0 | 132/9 |
| 46 | 0 | 132/10 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jofra Archer: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Brydon Carse: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ollie Pope: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Usman Khawaja: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Nathan Lyon: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Steve Smith: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Jamie Smith: Dave Morton · Public domain
Mark Wood: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Scott Boland: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Mitchell Starc: Dave Morton · Public domain
Zak Crawley: Dave Morton · Public domain
Cameron Green: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Brendan Doggett: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ben Stokes: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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