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The Ashes · 2025/26 · Men
21 Nov 2025 · Test
Perth Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Zak Crawleycaught · Usman Khawaja · Mitchell Starc0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Usman Khawaja · b Mitchell Starc | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Ben Duckettlbw · Mitchell Starc4 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Mitchell Starc | 21 | 20 | 4 | 0 | 105.00 |
 Ollie Popelbw · Cameron Green4 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Cameron Green | 46 | 58 | 4 | 0 | 79.31 |
 |
| caught · Marnus Labuschagne · b Mitchell Starc |
| 0 |
| 7 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
 Harry Brookcaught · Alex Carey · Brendan Doggett5 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Alex Carey · b Brendan Doggett | 52 | 61 | 5 | 1 | 85.25 |
|---|
 Ben Stokesbowled · Mitchell Starc0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mitchell Starc | 6 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
 Jamie Smithcaught · Cameron Green · Mitchell Starc6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Cameron Green · b Mitchell Starc | 33 | 22 | 6 | 0 | 150.00 |
|---|
| Gus Atkinsoncaught · Steve Smith · Mitchell Starc 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Steve Smith · b Mitchell Starc | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
 Brydon Carsecaught · Marnus Labuschagne · Brendan Doggett1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Marnus Labuschagne · b Brendan Doggett | 6 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
 Jofra Archernot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Mark Woodcaught · Alex Carey · Mitchell Starc0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alex Carey · b Mitchell Starc | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 0 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mitchell Starc4 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 12.5 | 4 | 58 | 7 | 4.52 | 0 | 0 |
 Scott Boland0 maidens · 0 wides · 2 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 62 | 0 | 6.20 | 0 | 2 |
 Brendan Doggett1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 1 | 27 | 2 | 3.86 | 0 | 0 |
 Nathan Lyon0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Cameron Green0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 10.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-0 (Zak Crawley, 1.0) · 2-33 (Ben Duckett, 6.4) · 3-39 (Joe Root, 8.5) · 4-94 (Ollie Pope, 20.0) · 5-115 (Ben Stokes, 24.5) · 6-160 (Harry Brook, 29.5) · 7-161 (Gus Atkinson, 30.1) · 8-168 (Brydon Carse, 31.5) · 9-172 (Jamie Smith, 32.4) · 10-172 (Mark Wood, 32.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/1 |
| 2 | 6 | 6/1 |
| 3 | 0 | 6/1 |
| 4 | 10 | 16/1 |
| 5 | 7 | 23/1 |
| 6 | 7 | 30/1 |
| 7 | 3 | 33/2 |
| 8 | 6 | 39/2 |
| 9 | 0 | 39/3 |
| 10 | 4 | 43/3 |
| 11 | 7 | 50/3 |
| 12 | 6 | 56/3 |
| 13 | 3 | 59/3 |
| 14 | 7 | 66/3 |
| 15 | 5 | 71/3 |
| 16 | 4 | 75/3 |
| 17 | 2 | 77/3 |
| 18 | 1 | 78/3 |
| 19 | 6 | 84/3 |
| 20 | 10 | 94/4 |
| 21 | 0 | 94/4 |
| 22 | 4 | 98/4 |
| 23 | 7 | 105/4 |
| 24 | 8 | 113/4 |
| 25 | 2 | 115/5 |
| 26 | 6 | 121/5 |
| 27 | 8 | 129/5 |
| 28 | 9 | 138/5 |
| 29 | 14 | 152/5 |
| 30 | 9 | 161/6 |
| 31 | 6 | 167/7 |
| 32 | 1 | 168/8 |
| 33 | 4 | 172/10 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jofra Archer: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Brydon Carse: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ollie Pope: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Usman Khawaja: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Nathan Lyon: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Steve Smith: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Jamie Smith: Dave Morton · Public domain
Mark Wood: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Scott Boland: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Mitchell Starc: Dave Morton · Public domain
Zak Crawley: Dave Morton · Public domain
Cameron Green: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Brendan Doggett: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ben Stokes: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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