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Photo: Dave Morton
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ICC Champions Trophy · 2024/25 · Men
23 Feb 2025 · ODI
Dubai International Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
India more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Pakistan started on 30%; Pakistan batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Rohit Sharmabowled · Shaheen Afridi3 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Shaheen Afridi | 20 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 133.33 |
 Shubman Gillbowled · Abrar Ahmed7 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Abrar Ahmed | 46 | 52 | 7 | 0 | 88.46 |
 Virat Kohlinot out7 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 100* | 111 | 7 | 0 | 90.09 |
 Shreyas Iyercaught · Imam-ul-Haq · Khushdil Shah5 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Imam-ul-Haq |
Pakistan's chances ranged from 0% to 56% during the match (India: 45% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 56 |
| 67 |
| 5 |
| 1 |
| 83.58 |
 Hardik Pandyacaught · Mohammad Rizwan · Shaheen Afridi1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mohammad Rizwan · b Shaheen Afridi | 8 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 133.33 |
|---|
 Axar Patelnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 11 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Shaheen Afridi0 maidens · 7 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 74 | 2 | 9.25 | 7 | 0 |
 Naseem Shah0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 37 | 0 | 4.63 | 1 | 0 |
 Haris Rauf0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 52 | 0 | 7.43 | 3 | 0 |
 Abrar Ahmed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 28 | 1 | 2.80 | 0 | 0 |
| Khushdil Shah0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.3 | 0 | 43 | 1 | 5.73 | 0 | 0 |
| Salman Ali Agha0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-31 (Rohit Sharma, 5.0) · 2-100 (Shubman Gill, 17.3) · 3-214 (Shreyas Iyer, 38.5) · 4-223 (Hardik Pandya, 40.0)
Recorded target: 242 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 10 | 12/0 |
| 3 | 8 | 20/0 |
| 4 | 6 | 26/0 |
| 5 | 5 | 31/1 |
| 6 | 1 | 32/1 |
| 7 | 14 | 46/1 |
| 8 | 3 | 49/1 |
| 9 | 14 | 63/1 |
| 10 | 1 | 64/1 |
| 11 | 3 | 67/1 |
| 12 | 3 | 70/1 |
| 13 | 14 | 84/1 |
| 14 | 3 | 87/1 |
| 15 | 2 | 89/1 |
| 16 | 4 | 93/1 |
| 17 | 6 | 99/1 |
| 18 | 3 | 102/2 |
| 19 | 5 | 107/2 |
| 20 | 2 | 109/2 |
| 21 | 6 | 115/2 |
| 22 | 3 | 118/2 |
| 23 | 5 | 123/2 |
| 24 | 1 | 124/2 |
| 25 | 2 | 126/2 |
| 26 | 2 | 128/2 |
| 27 | 8 | 136/2 |
| 28 | 4 | 140/2 |
| 29 | 10 | 150/2 |
| 30 | 10 | 160/2 |
| 31 | 8 | 168/2 |
| 32 | 7 | 175/2 |
| 33 | 4 | 179/2 |
| 34 | 6 | 185/2 |
| 35 | 4 | 189/2 |
| 36 | 11 | 200/2 |
| 37 | 1 | 201/2 |
| 38 | 8 | 209/2 |
| 39 | 6 | 215/3 |
| 40 | 8 | 223/4 |
| 41 | 2 | 225/4 |
| 42 | 13 | 238/4 |
| 43 | 6 | 244/4 |
Imam-ul-Haq: Pakistan Cricket Board · CC BY 3.0
Shaheen Afridi: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Hardik Pandya: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Axar Patel: Anand Anil · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mohammad Babar Azam: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Rizwan: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Haris Rauf: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
KL Rahul: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Rohit Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kuldeep Yadav: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Ravindra Jadeja: SR Vlogs · CC BY 3.0
Shubman Gill: Bollywood Hungama · CC BY 3.0
Naseem Shah: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Mohammed Shami: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Saud Shakeel: Dave Morton · Public domain
Virat Kohli: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Abrar Ahmed: Nazly Ahmed · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shreyas Iyer: 247 Entertainment · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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