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Photo: Dave Morton
Original photograph ↗ · Public domain
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
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ICC Champions Trophy · 2024/25 · Men
23 Feb 2025 · ODI
Dubai International Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
India more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Pakistan started on 30%; Pakistan batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Imam-ul-Haqrun out · Axar Patel · Kuldeep Yadav0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Axar Patel | 10 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 38.46 |
 Mohammad Babar Azamcaught · KL Rahul · Hardik Pandya5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · KL Rahul · b Hardik Pandya | 23 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 88.46 |
 Saud Shakeelcaught · Axar Patel · Hardik Pandya5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Axar Patel · b Hardik Pandya | 62 | 76 | 5 | 0 | 81.58 |
 Mohammad Rizwanbowled · Axar Patel3 fours · 0 sixes |
Pakistan's chances ranged from 0% to 56% during the match (India: 45% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| bowled · b Axar Patel |
| 46 |
| 77 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 59.74 |
| Salman Ali Aghacaught · Ravindra Jadeja · Kuldeep Yadav 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ravindra Jadeja · b Kuldeep Yadav | 19 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 79.17 |
|---|
| Tayyab Tahirbowled · Ravindra Jadeja 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ravindra Jadeja | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Khushdil Shahcaught · Virat Kohli · Harshit Rana 0 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Virat Kohli · b Harshit Rana | 38 | 39 | 0 | 2 | 97.44 |
|---|
 Shaheen Afridilbw · Kuldeep Yadav0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Kuldeep Yadav | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Naseem Shahcaught · Virat Kohli · Kuldeep Yadav1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Virat Kohli · b Kuldeep Yadav | 14 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 87.50 |
|---|
 Haris Raufrun out · Axar Patel, KL Rahul · Mohammed Shami0 fours · 1 sixes | run out · Axar Patel, KL Rahul | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 114.29 |
|---|
 Abrar Ahmednot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 8 · wides: 9 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mohammed Shami0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 43 | 0 | 5.38 | 5 | 0 |
| Harshit Rana0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.4 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 3.91 | 2 | 0 |
 Hardik Pandya0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 31 | 2 | 3.88 | 2 | 0 |
 Axar Patel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 49 | 1 | 4.90 | 0 | 0 |
 Kuldeep Yadav0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 40 | 3 | 4.44 | 0 | 0 |
 Ravindra Jadeja0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 40 | 1 | 5.71 | 0 | 0 |
1-41 (Mohammad Babar Azam, 8.2) · 2-47 (Imam-ul-Haq, 9.2) · 3-151 (Mohammad Rizwan, 33.2) · 4-159 (Saud Shakeel, 34.5) · 5-165 (Tayyab Tahir, 36.1) · 6-200 (Salman Ali Agha, 42.4) · 7-200 (Shaheen Afridi, 42.5) · 8-222 (Naseem Shah, 46.4) · 9-241 (Haris Rauf, 49.0) · 10-241 (Khushdil Shah, 49.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 10/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 14/0 |
| 4 | 8 | 22/0 |
| 5 | 3 | 25/0 |
| 6 | 1 | 26/0 |
| 7 | 5 | 31/0 |
| 8 | 6 | 37/0 |
| 9 | 10 | 47/1 |
| 10 | 5 | 52/2 |
| 11 | 3 | 55/2 |
| 12 | 3 | 58/2 |
| 13 | 1 | 59/2 |
| 14 | 2 | 61/2 |
| 15 | 2 | 63/2 |
| 16 | 7 | 70/2 |
| 17 | 2 | 72/2 |
| 18 | 2 | 74/2 |
| 19 | 3 | 77/2 |
| 20 | 2 | 79/2 |
| 21 | 3 | 82/2 |
| 22 | 4 | 86/2 |
| 23 | 4 | 90/2 |
| 24 | 4 | 94/2 |
| 25 | 5 | 99/2 |
| 26 | 8 | 107/2 |
| 27 | 9 | 116/2 |
| 28 | 5 | 121/2 |
| 29 | 5 | 126/2 |
| 30 | 3 | 129/2 |
| 31 | 8 | 137/2 |
| 32 | 5 | 142/2 |
| 33 | 8 | 150/2 |
| 34 | 4 | 154/3 |
| 35 | 6 | 160/4 |
| 36 | 5 | 165/4 |
| 37 | 2 | 167/5 |
| 38 | 3 | 170/5 |
| 39 | 7 | 177/5 |
| 40 | 6 | 183/5 |
| 41 | 5 | 188/5 |
| 42 | 9 | 197/5 |
| 43 | 3 | 200/7 |
| 44 | 6 | 206/7 |
| 45 | 6 | 212/7 |
| 46 | 7 | 219/7 |
| 47 | 3 | 222/8 |
| 48 | 5 | 227/8 |
| 49 | 14 | 241/9 |
| 50 | 0 | 241/10 |
Imam-ul-Haq: Pakistan Cricket Board · CC BY 3.0
Shaheen Afridi: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Hardik Pandya: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Axar Patel: Anand Anil · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mohammad Babar Azam: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Rizwan: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Haris Rauf: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
KL Rahul: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Rohit Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kuldeep Yadav: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Ravindra Jadeja: SR Vlogs · CC BY 3.0
Shubman Gill: Bollywood Hungama · CC BY 3.0
Naseem Shah: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Mohammed Shami: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Saud Shakeel: Dave Morton · Public domain
Virat Kohli: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Abrar Ahmed: Nazly Ahmed · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shreyas Iyer: 247 Entertainment · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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