South AfricaversusZimbabwe

South Africa more likely to win

Why

• On results in T20 internationals so far, South Africa rate stronger than Zimbabwe (1,697 vs 1,338 on our results rating)
• In the last 5 T20 internationals between these sides, South Africa won 4 and Zimbabwe won 1
• Zimbabwe are playing at home in Zimbabwe

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

South Africa started on 91%; South Africa batted first.

South Africa's chances ranged from 49% to 100% during the match (Zimbabwe: 0% to 51%).

Biggest swings

1. 2nd inns 13.2: C Wyngaard to CS Mugeri-Tiripano, CS Mugeri-Tiripano out. South Africa up from 55% to 67%.
2. 2nd inns 14.2: A Hlubi to K Ndlovu, K Ndlovu out. South Africa up from 54% to 68%.
3. 2nd inns 14.3: A Hlubi to B Biza, B Biza out. South Africa up from 68% to 82%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.