**County Ground, Northampton**
Photo: John Sutton
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Vitality Blast · 2024 · Men

DurhamversusNorthamptonshire

7 Jul 2024 · T20

County Ground, Northampton · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Northamptonshire won by 5 wickets

Durham20.0 overs140/10 Northamptonshire19.4 overs141/5 County Ground, Northampton ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Durham started on 46%; Durham batted first.

Durham’s chance of winning (%) · Northamptonshire is the rest

Durham's chances ranged from 3% to 46% during the match (Northamptonshire: 54% to 97%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 17.3: BA Raine to SA Zaib, SA Zaib out. Durham up from 14% to 26%.
2nd inns 18.1: BJ Dwarshuis to LD McManus, six by LD McManus. Northamptonshire up from 75% to 93%.
2nd inns 19.2: BA Raine to AC Agar, six by AC Agar. Northamptonshire up from 72% to 97%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.