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Photo: Krish Dulal
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Nepal Tri-Nation T20I Series · 2023/24 · Men
2 Mar 2024 · T20
Tribhuvan University International Cricket Ground, Kirtipur · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Netherlands started on 50%; Netherlands batted first.
Netherlands's chances ranged from 0% to 54% during the match (Nepal: 46% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kushal Bhurtelcaught · Timm van der Gugten · Vivian Kingma1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Timm van der Gugten · b Vivian Kingma | 12 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 150.00 |
| Aasif Sheikhbowled · Vivian Kingma 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Vivian Kingma | 8 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
 Rohit Kumarcaught · Noah Croes · Vivian Kingma3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Noah Croes · b Vivian Kingma | 46 | 34 | 3 | 1 | 135.29 |
 Gulsan Jhabowled · Aryan Dutt2 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Aryan Dutt | 38 | 36 | 2 |
| 1 |
| 105.56 |
 Dipendra Singh Aireenot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 5 | 0 | 0 | 80.00 |
|---|
 Kushal Mallanot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 4 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vivian Kingma0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 3 | 4.25 | 1 | 0 |
 Timm van der Gugten0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 3.2 | 0 | 36 | 0 | 10.80 | 1 | 1 |
| Aryan Dutt0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 25 | 1 | 6.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Sybrand Engelbrecht0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 16.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Roelof van der Merwe0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 8.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Kyle Klein0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-26 (Kushal Bhurtel, 2.3) · 2-27 (Aasif Sheikh, 2.5) · 3-113 (Gulsan Jha, 13.4) · 4-117 (Rohit Kumar, 14.3)
Recorded target: 121 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 13 | 18/0 |
| 3 | 10 | 28/2 |
| 4 | 5 | 33/2 |
| 5 | 2 | 35/2 |
| 6 | 3 | 38/2 |
| 7 | 9 | 47/2 |
| 8 | 16 | 63/2 |
| 9 | 10 | 73/2 |
| 10 | 6 | 79/2 |
| 11 | 6 | 85/2 |
| 12 | 10 | 95/2 |
| 13 | 12 | 107/2 |
| 14 | 8 | 115/3 |
| 15 | 4 | 119/4 |
| 16 | 2 | 121/4 |
Gulsan Jha: Elison Pokhrel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Roelof van der Merwe: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sompal Kami: सरोज कुमार ढकाल · CC BY-SA 3.0
Rohit Kumar: Cricnepal · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kushal Bhurtel: Kushal Bhurtel · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karan KC: Helloworld3377 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dipendra Singh Airee: Dipendra Singh Airee · CC BY-SA 4.0
Pratis GC: Hamrokhelkud · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aarif Sheikh: Nepalese Diaspora · CC BY-SA 4.0
Timm van der Gugten: Dave Morton · Public domain
Kushal Malla: Hamro Khelkud · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
