NetherlandsversusNepal

2 Mar 2024 · T20

Tribhuvan University International Cricket Ground, Kirtipur · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Nepal won by 6 wickets

Netherlands19.3 overs120/10 Nepal15.2 overs121/4 Tribhuvan University International Cricket Ground, Kirtipur ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Too close to call

50%Netherlands50%Nepal

Why

Nepal are playing at home in Nepal
In the last 8 T20 internationals between these sides, Netherlands won 5 and Nepal won 3
On results in T20 internationals so far, Netherlands rate stronger than Nepal (1,577 vs 1,567 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Netherlands started on 50%; Netherlands batted first.

Netherlands’s chance of winning (%) · Nepal is the rest

Netherlands's chances ranged from 0% to 54% during the match (Nepal: 46% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.4: Karan KC to M Levitt, M Levitt out. Nepal up from 47% to 61%.
0.6: Karan KC to SA Engelbrecht, SA Engelbrecht out. Nepal up from 61% to 73%.
9.5: Kushal Malla to NRJ Croes, NRJ Croes out. Nepal up from 75% to 85%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Netherlands120/10 Nepal121/4

Innings 1

Netherlands

120/1019.3 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Netherlands batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Michael Levittcaught · Dipendra Singh Airee · Karan KC 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Dipendra Singh Airee · b Karan KC	4	4	1	0	100.00
Max O'Dowdbowled · Pratis GC 4 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Pratis GC	31	24	4	1	129.17
Sybrand Engelbrechtcaught · Aasif Sheikh · Karan KC 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Aasif Sheikh · b Karan KC	0	2	0	0	0.00
Scott Edwardsbowled · Pratis GC 0 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Pratis GC	18	21	0	1	85.71
Teja Nidamanurubowled · Pratis GC 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Pratis GC	5	14	0	0	35.71

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Karan KC0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	18	2	6.00	1	0
Sompal Kami0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	25	0	8.33	1	0
Pratis GC1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	13	3	3.25	0	0
Kushal Malla0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	18	2	4.50	0	0
Abinash Bohara0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	3.0	0	28	0	9.33	1	1
Dipendra Singh Airee0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.3	0	15	1	6.00	1	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/2
2	6	10/2
3	3	13/2
4	7	20/2
5	11	31/2
6	12	43/2
7	2	45/2
8	9	54/2
9	4	58/4
10	2	60/6
11	3	63/6
12	4	67/6
13	12	79/6
14	3	82/6
15	7	89/7
16	4	93/7
17	9	102/7
18	9	111/9
19	7	118/9
20	2	120/10

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