PakistanversusBangladesh

22 Sept 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Pakistan won by 31 runs

Pakistan20.0 overs145/8 Bangladesh20.0 overs114/7 Korogi Sports Park ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Bangladesh more likely to win

44%Pakistan56%Bangladesh

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Bangladesh rate stronger than Pakistan (1,576 vs 1,537 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Pakistan started on 42%; Pakistan batted first.

Pakistan’s chance of winning (%) · Bangladesh is the rest

Pakistan's chances ranged from 28% to 100% during the match (Bangladesh: 0% to 72%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 2.1: Umm-e-Hani to Juairiya Ferdous, Juairiya Ferdous out. Pakistan up from 55% to 66%.
2nd inns 3.2: Tasmia Rubab to Dilara Akter, Dilara Akter out. Pakistan up from 64% to 76%.
2nd inns 4.1: Umm-e-Hani to S Mostary, S Mostary out. Pakistan up from 77% to 87%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Pakistan145/8 Bangladesh114/7

Innings 2

Bangladesh

114/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bangladesh batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Dilara Aktercaught · Saira Jabeen · Tasmia Rubab 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Saira Jabeen · b Tasmia Rubab	12	8	2	0	150.00
Juairiya Ferdouscaught · Saira Jabeen · Umm-e-Hani 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Saira Jabeen · b Umm-e-Hani	4	9	0	0	44.44
Sobhana Mostarycaught · Saira Jabeen · Umm-e-Hani 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Saira Jabeen · b Umm-e-Hani	2	6	0	0	33.33
Nigar Sultanalbw · Ayesha Zafar 3 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Ayesha Zafar	25	30	3	0	83.33

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Tasmia Rubab0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	25	1	8.33	1
Fatima Sana0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	25	1	6.25	1
Umm-e-Hani1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	10	3	2.50	0
Tuba Hassan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	25	0	8.33	0
Nashra Sandhu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	19	1	4.75	0
Ayesha Zafar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	10	1	5.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	9	9/0
2	3	12/0
3	2	14/1
4	6	20/2
5	0	20/3
6	5	25/3
7	3	28/3
8	6	34/3
9	2	36/3
10	7	43/3
11	5	48/3
12	5	53/3
13	12	65/3
14	5	70/4
15	5	75/4
16	5	80/5
17	6	86/6
18	7	93/7
19	11	104/7
20	10	114/7

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