BahrainversusKuwait

14 Dec 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Bahrain won by 4 runs

Bahrain20.0 overs125/8 Kuwait19.3 overs121/10 ICC Academy, Dubai ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Kuwait more likely to win

26%Bahrain74%Kuwait

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Kuwait rate stronger than Bahrain (1,588 vs 1,485 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Kuwait won 8 and Bahrain won 2

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bahrain started on 24%; Bahrain batted first.

Bahrain’s chance of winning (%) · Kuwait is the rest

Bahrain's chances ranged from 6% to 87% during the match (Kuwait: 13% to 94%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 17.6: Haider Butt to Sayed Monib, six by Sayed Monib. Kuwait up from 32% to 71%.
2nd inns 19.1: Sarfaraz Ali to Bilal Tahir, six by Bilal Tahir. Kuwait up from 13% to 58%.
2nd inns 19.3: Sarfaraz Ali to Bilal Tahir, Bilal Tahir out. Bahrain up from 51% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bahrain125/8 Kuwait121/10

Innings 1

Bahrain

125/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bahrain batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
P Kurupcaught · Mirza Ahmed · Sayed Monib 3 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Mirza Ahmed · b Sayed Monib	33	27	3	1	122.22
Sarfaraz Alicaught · Mohomad Aslam · Mirza Ahmed 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Mohomad Aslam · b Mirza Ahmed	1	2	0	0	50.00
Imran Anwarcaught · Mirza Ahmed · Mohamed Shafeeq 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Mirza Ahmed · b Mohamed Shafeeq	3	7	0	0	42.86
Asif Alicaught · Ravija Sandaruwan · Mirza Ahmed 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Ravija Sandaruwan · b Mirza Ahmed	1	2	0	0	50.00
Haider Buttcaught · Sayed Monib · Mohomad Aslam 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Sayed Monib · b Mohomad Aslam	9	11	0	0	81.82

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Mirza Ahmed0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	15	2	5.00	1
Mohamed Shafeeq0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	30	2	7.50	2
Yasin Patel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	9	0	4.50	0
Sayed Monib0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	22	2	5.50	0
Mohomad Aslam0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	23	2	5.75	0
Adnan Idrees0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	12	0	6.00	0
Meet Bhavsar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	12	0	12.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/1
2	3	6/1
3	9	15/1
4	9	24/2
5	3	27/3
6	6	33/3
7	9	42/4
8	3	45/4
9	5	50/4
10	4	54/5
11	3	57/5
12	6	63/6
13	3	66/6
14	4	70/6
15	9	79/6
16	9	88/6
17	12	100/6
18	13	113/6
19	5	118/7
20	7	125/8

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