Melbourne RenegadesversusMelbourne Stars

4 Jan 2025 · T20

Melbourne Cricket Ground · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Melbourne Stars won by 5 wickets

Melbourne Renegades20.0 overs168/7 Melbourne Stars19.4 overs171/5 Melbourne Cricket Ground ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Melbourne Renegades started on 49%; Melbourne Renegades batted first.

Melbourne Renegades’s chance of winning (%) · Melbourne Stars is the rest

Melbourne Renegades's chances ranged from 7% to 81% during the match (Melbourne Stars: 19% to 93%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 17.1: W Sutherland to GJ Maxwell, six by GJ Maxwell. Melbourne Stars up from 46% to 65%.
2nd inns 18.3: GS Sandhu to GJ Maxwell, six by GJ Maxwell. Melbourne Stars up from 41% to 67%.
2nd inns 19.3: TS Rogers to HWR Cartwright, six by HWR Cartwright. Melbourne Stars up from 52% to 93%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Melbourne Renegades168/7 Melbourne Stars171/5

Innings 1