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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2024 · Men
15 Aug 2024 · ODI
Sportpark Westvliet, The Hague · Venue photographRecorded result
Netherlands more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Netherlands started on 66%; Netherlands batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Taylorlbw · Vivian Kingma 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Vivian Kingma | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Smit Patellbw · Shariz Ahmad 6 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Shariz Ahmad | 38 | 46 | 6 | 0 | 82.61 |
| Monank Patelcaught · Shariz Ahmad · Vivian Kingma 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shariz Ahmad · b Vivian Kingma | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Aaron Jonescaught · Kyle Klein · Shariz Ahmad 6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kyle Klein · b Shariz Ahmad | 47 | 70 | 6 | 0 | 67.14 |
| Milind Kumarcaught · Vivian Kingma · Kyle Klein 4 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Vivian Kingma · b Kyle Klein | 69 | 79 | 4 | 1 | 87.34 |
Netherlands's chances ranged from 8% to 100% during the match (United States of America: 0% to 92%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught and bowled · b Aryan Dutt |
| 20 |
| 25 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 80.00 |
| Shadley van Schalkwykcaught · Michael Levitt · Aryan Dutt 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Michael Levitt · b Aryan Dutt | 21 | 49 | 1 | 0 | 42.86 |
|---|
| Harmeet Singhcaught · Michael Levitt · Paul van Meekeren 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Michael Levitt · b Paul van Meekeren | 1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 7.69 |
|---|
| Jasdeep Singhcaught · Shariz Ahmad · Paul van Meekeren 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shariz Ahmad · b Paul van Meekeren | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Nosthush Kenjigebowled · Vivian Kingma 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Vivian Kingma | 4 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
| J Drysdalenot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 12 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vivian Kingma0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 47 | 3 | 5.22 | 3 | 0 |
| Kyle Klein0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 41 | 1 | 4.10 | 3 | 0 |
| Aryan Dutt1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 42 | 2 | 4.20 | 3 | 0 |
| Paul van Meekeren0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.5 | 0 | 32 | 2 | 3.25 | 3 | 0 |
| Michael Levitt1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Shariz Ahmad0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 35 | 2 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-1 (Steven Taylor, 0.2) · 2-2 (Monank Patel, 0.5) · 3-87 (Smit Patel, 18.2) · 4-100 (Aaron Jones, 21.0) · 5-142 (Shayan Jahangir, 30.1) · 6-210 (Milind Kumar, 44.0) · 7-212 (Shadley van Schalkwyk, 46.1) · 8-213 (Jasdeep Singh, 47.1) · 9-218 (Nosthush Kenjige, 49.0) · 10-218 (Harmeet Singh, 49.5)
Recorded target: 238 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/2 |
| 2 | 10 | 12/2 |
| 3 | 5 | 17/2 |
| 4 | 10 | 27/2 |
| 5 | 5 | 32/2 |
| 6 | 1 | 33/2 |
| 7 | 5 | 38/2 |
| 8 | 1 | 39/2 |
| 9 | 9 | 48/2 |
| 10 | 0 | 48/2 |
| 11 | 1 | 49/2 |
| 12 | 5 | 54/2 |
| 13 | 5 | 59/2 |
| 14 | 9 | 68/2 |
| 15 | 5 | 73/2 |
| 16 | 3 | 76/2 |
| 17 | 7 | 83/2 |
| 18 | 0 | 83/2 |
| 19 | 6 | 89/3 |
| 20 | 7 | 96/3 |
| 21 | 4 | 100/4 |
| 22 | 4 | 104/4 |
| 23 | 2 | 106/4 |
| 24 | 5 | 111/4 |
| 25 | 4 | 115/4 |
| 26 | 6 | 121/4 |
| 27 | 4 | 125/4 |
| 28 | 4 | 129/4 |
| 29 | 4 | 133/4 |
| 30 | 9 | 142/4 |
| 31 | 2 | 144/5 |
| 32 | 1 | 145/5 |
| 33 | 3 | 148/5 |
| 34 | 5 | 153/5 |
| 35 | 9 | 162/5 |
| 36 | 3 | 165/5 |
| 37 | 6 | 171/5 |
| 38 | 2 | 173/5 |
| 39 | 7 | 180/5 |
| 40 | 10 | 190/5 |
| 41 | 10 | 200/5 |
| 42 | 2 | 202/5 |
| 43 | 4 | 206/5 |
| 44 | 4 | 210/6 |
| 45 | 1 | 211/6 |
| 46 | 1 | 212/6 |
| 47 | 1 | 213/7 |
| 48 | 3 | 216/8 |
| 49 | 2 | 218/9 |
| 50 | 0 | 218/10 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.