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Photo: Birdy10
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2024 · Men
15 Aug 2024 · ODI
Sportpark Westvliet, The Hague · Venue photographRecorded result
Netherlands more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Netherlands started on 66%; Netherlands batted first.
On 15 Aug 2024, Netherlands played United States of America at Sportpark Westvliet, The Hague. Recorded result: Netherlands won by 19 runs.
Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.
Netherlands's chances ranged from 8% to 100% during the match (United States of America: 0% to 92%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.