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Photo: Sachintha Wijayatunga
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Zimbabwe tour of Sri Lanka · 2023/24 · Men
8 Jan 2024 · ODI
R Premadasa Stadium, Colombo · Venue photographRecorded result
Sri Lanka more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Zimbabwe started on 21%; Zimbabwe batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avishka Fernandocaught · Joylord Gumbie · Richard Ngarava 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Joylord Gumbie · b Richard Ngarava | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 80.00 |
| Kusal Mendiscaught · Ryan Burl · Richard Ngarava 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ryan Burl · b Richard Ngarava | 17 | 28 | 2 | 0 | 60.71 |
| Sadeera Samarawickramacaught · Craig Ervine · Richard Ngarava 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Craig Ervine · b Richard Ngarava | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 133.33 |
 Janith Liyanagecaught · Richard Ngarava · Blessing Muzarabani6 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Richard Ngarava · b Blessing Muzarabani | 95 | 127 | 6 | 2 | 74.80 |
| Charith Asalankacaught · Joylord Gumbie · Richard Ngarava0 fours · 0 sixes |
Zimbabwe's chances ranged from 5% to 71% during the match (Sri Lanka: 29% to 95%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Joylord Gumbie · b Richard Ngarava |
| 0 |
| 7 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
| Sahan Arachchigelbw · Sikandar Raza 2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Sikandar Raza | 21 | 39 | 2 | 0 | 53.85 |
|---|
| Dasun Shanakacaught · Joylord Gumbie · Sikandar Raza 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Joylord Gumbie · b Sikandar Raza | 7 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 53.85 |
|---|
| Mahesh Theekshanacaught · Faraz Akram · Richard Ngarava 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Faraz Akram · b Richard Ngarava | 18 | 31 | 1 | 0 | 58.06 |
|---|
| Dushmantha Chameeranot out 2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 18* | 25 | 2 | 0 | 72.00 |
|---|
| Jeffrey Vandersaynot out 2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 19* | 18 | 2 | 0 | 105.56 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 4 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richard Ngarava3 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 3 | 32 | 5 | 3.20 | 0 | 0 |
| Blessing Muzarabani0 maidens · 3 wides · 2 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 41 | 1 | 4.10 | 3 | 2 |
| Faraz Akram0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 43 | 0 | 4.30 | 0 | 0 |
 Sikandar Raza1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 32 | 2 | 3.20 | 0 | 0 |
| Tapiwa Mufudza0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 38 | 0 | 5.43 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Burl0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 11.50 | 1 | 0 |
1-4 (Avishka Fernando, 0.5) · 2-16 (Sadeera Samarawickrama, 2.2) · 3-51 (Kusal Mendis, 13.5) · 4-53 (Charith Asalanka, 16.0) · 5-90 (Sahan Arachchige, 26.3) · 6-112 (Dasun Shanaka, 30.5) · 7-168 (Mahesh Theekshana, 41.3) · 8-172 (Janith Liyanage, 42.3)
Recorded target: 209 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/1 |
| 2 | 8 | 16/1 |
| 3 | 0 | 16/2 |
| 4 | 2 | 18/2 |
| 5 | 0 | 18/2 |
| 6 | 4 | 22/2 |
| 7 | 9 | 31/2 |
| 8 | 3 | 34/2 |
| 9 | 2 | 36/2 |
| 10 | 5 | 41/2 |
| 11 | 2 | 43/2 |
| 12 | 2 | 45/2 |
| 13 | 4 | 49/2 |
| 14 | 2 | 51/3 |
| 15 | 2 | 53/3 |
| 16 | 0 | 53/4 |
| 17 | 4 | 57/4 |
| 18 | 2 | 59/4 |
| 19 | 4 | 63/4 |
| 20 | 2 | 65/4 |
| 21 | 2 | 67/4 |
| 22 | 5 | 72/4 |
| 23 | 3 | 75/4 |
| 24 | 6 | 81/4 |
| 25 | 7 | 88/4 |
| 26 | 2 | 90/4 |
| 27 | 0 | 90/5 |
| 28 | 8 | 98/5 |
| 29 | 7 | 105/5 |
| 30 | 6 | 111/5 |
| 31 | 1 | 112/6 |
| 32 | 8 | 120/6 |
| 33 | 2 | 122/6 |
| 34 | 9 | 131/6 |
| 35 | 5 | 136/6 |
| 36 | 14 | 150/6 |
| 37 | 3 | 153/6 |
| 38 | 5 | 158/6 |
| 39 | 2 | 160/6 |
| 40 | 4 | 164/6 |
| 41 | 3 | 167/6 |
| 42 | 3 | 170/7 |
| 43 | 8 | 178/8 |
| 44 | 2 | 180/8 |
| 45 | 7 | 187/8 |
| 46 | 4 | 191/8 |
| 47 | 4 | 195/8 |
| 48 | 3 | 198/8 |
| 49 | 13 | 211/8 |
Craig Ervine: TheCricketer · CC BY-SA 4.0
Clive Madande: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Janith Liyanage: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sikandar Raza: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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