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Photo: Sachintha Wijayatunga
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Zimbabwe tour of Sri Lanka · 2023/24 · Men
8 Jan 2024 · ODI
R Premadasa Stadium, Colombo · Venue photographRecorded result
Sri Lanka more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Zimbabwe started on 21%; Zimbabwe batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joylord Gumbiebowled · Mahesh Theekshana 4 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mahesh Theekshana | 30 | 37 | 4 | 0 | 81.08 |
| Tinashe Kamunhukamwecaught · Kusal Mendis · Dilshan Madushanka 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kusal Mendis · b Dilshan Madushanka | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Craig Ervinecaught · Sadeera Samarawickrama · Dushmantha Chameera9 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Sadeera Samarawickrama · b Dushmantha Chameera | 82 | 102 | 9 | 1 | 80.39 |
| Milton Shumbacaught · Sahan Arachchige · Mahesh Theekshana 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sahan Arachchige · b Mahesh Theekshana | 26 | 45 | 2 | 0 | 57.78 |
 |
Zimbabwe's chances ranged from 5% to 71% during the match (Sri Lanka: 29% to 95%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Janith Liyanage · b Jeffrey Vandersay |
| 1 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 20.00 |
| Ryan Burlbowled · Dushmantha Chameera 1 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Dushmantha Chameera | 31 | 37 | 1 | 1 | 83.78 |
|---|
 Clive Madandelbw · Jeffrey Vandersay1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Jeffrey Vandersay | 14 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Faraz Akramlbw · Mahesh Theekshana 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Mahesh Theekshana | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
|---|
| Richard Ngaravanot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 5* | 4 | 1 | 0 | 125.00 |
|---|
| Blessing Muzarabanirun out · Kusal Mendis, Jeffrey Vandersay · Mahesh Theekshana 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Kusal Mendis, Jeffrey Vandersay | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Tapiwa Mufudzabowled · Mahesh Theekshana 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mahesh Theekshana | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 11.11 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 8 · wides: 7 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dilshan Madushanka1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 1 | 24 | 1 | 3.43 | 0 | 0 |
| Dushmantha Chameera0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 44 | 2 | 5.50 | 2 | 1 |
| Mahesh Theekshana1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.4 | 1 | 31 | 4 | 3.21 | 0 | 0 |
 Janith Liyanage0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Dasun Shanaka0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 3.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Sahan Arachchige0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeffrey Vandersay1 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 47 | 2 | 4.70 | 5 | 0 |
| Charith Asalanka0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-1 (Tinashe Kamunhukamwe, 0.3) · 2-61 (Joylord Gumbie, 11.4) · 3-114 (Milton Shumba, 24.2) · 4-115 (Sikandar Raza, 25.1) · 5-182 (Craig Ervine, 36.5) · 6-190 (Ryan Burl, 38.5) · 7-202 (Clive Madande, 42.0) · 8-202 (Faraz Akram, 42.1) · 9-202 (Blessing Muzarabani, 42.3) · 10-208 (Tapiwa Mufudza, 44.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| 2 | 3 | 4/1 |
| 3 | 4 | 8/1 |
| 4 | 7 | 15/1 |
| 5 | 1 | 16/1 |
| 6 | 12 | 28/1 |
| 7 | 10 | 38/1 |
| 8 | 3 | 41/1 |
| 9 | 4 | 45/1 |
| 10 | 5 | 50/1 |
| 11 | 7 | 57/1 |
| 12 | 4 | 61/2 |
| 13 | 3 | 64/2 |
| 14 | 1 | 65/2 |
| 15 | 1 | 66/2 |
| 16 | 5 | 71/2 |
| 17 | 1 | 72/2 |
| 18 | 6 | 78/2 |
| 19 | 9 | 87/2 |
| 20 | 4 | 91/2 |
| 21 | 9 | 100/2 |
| 22 | 6 | 106/2 |
| 23 | 4 | 110/2 |
| 24 | 3 | 113/2 |
| 25 | 2 | 115/3 |
| 26 | 11 | 126/4 |
| 27 | 2 | 128/4 |
| 28 | 6 | 134/4 |
| 29 | 10 | 144/4 |
| 30 | 5 | 149/4 |
| 31 | 1 | 150/4 |
| 32 | 8 | 158/4 |
| 33 | 0 | 158/4 |
| 34 | 10 | 168/4 |
| 35 | 7 | 175/4 |
| 36 | 3 | 178/4 |
| 37 | 5 | 183/5 |
| 38 | 4 | 187/5 |
| 39 | 3 | 190/6 |
| 40 | 1 | 191/6 |
| 41 | 8 | 199/6 |
| 42 | 3 | 202/7 |
| 43 | 0 | 202/9 |
| 44 | 6 | 208/9 |
| 45 | 0 | 208/10 |
Craig Ervine: TheCricketer · CC BY-SA 4.0
Clive Madande: Amuzujoe · CC BY-SA 4.0
Janith Liyanage: Neb · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sikandar Raza: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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