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Photo: Michal Klajban
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
Australia tour of New Zealand · 2023/24 · Men
8 Mar 2024 · Test
Hagley Oval, Christchurch · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Steve Smithlbw · Ben Sears2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Ben Sears | 11 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 45.83 |
 Usman Khawajabowled · Matt Henry2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Matt Henry | 16 | 45 | 2 | 0 | 35.56 |
 Marnus Labuschagnecaught · Glenn Phillips · Tim Southee12 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Glenn Phillips · b Tim Southee | 90 | 147 | 12 | 0 | 61.22 |
| bowled · b Matt Henry |
| 25 |
| 40 |
| 6 |
| 0 |
| 62.50 |
 Travis Headcaught · Tom Blundell · Matt Henry2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Tom Blundell · b Matt Henry | 21 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 110.53 |
|---|
 Nathan Lyoncaught · Daryl Mitchell · Matt Henry3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Daryl Mitchell · b Matt Henry | 20 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 74.07 |
|---|
 Mitchell Marshlbw · Matt Henry0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Matt Henry | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Alex Careycaught · Tom Latham · Glenn Phillips2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Latham · b Glenn Phillips | 14 | 24 | 2 | 0 | 58.33 |
|---|
 Mitchell Starccaught · Tom Blundell · Matt Henry3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Blundell · b Matt Henry | 28 | 54 | 3 | 0 | 51.85 |
|---|
 Pat Cumminslbw · Matt Henry4 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Matt Henry | 23 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 104.55 |
|---|
 Josh Hazlewoodnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 5 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 0 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tim Southee2 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 18.0 | 2 | 68 | 1 | 3.78 | 0 | 1 |
 Matt Henry4 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 23.0 | 4 | 67 | 7 | 2.91 | 0 | 0 |
| Ben Sears3 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 16.0 | 3 | 71 | 1 | 4.44 | 0 | 0 |
| Scott Kuggeleijn1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 1 | 30 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Glenn Phillips0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 2.80 | 0 | 0 |
1-18 (Steve Smith, 8.3) · 2-32 (Usman Khawaja, 14.0) · 3-81 (Cameron Green, 27.0) · 4-107 (Travis Head, 32.3) · 5-158 (Nathan Lyon, 42.5) · 6-166 (Mitchell Marsh, 44.5) · 7-189 (Alex Carey, 51.2) · 8-221 (Marnus Labuschagne, 60.2) · 9-237 (Mitchell Starc, 65.5) · 10-256 (Pat Cummins, 68.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 0 | 2/0 |
| 3 | 0 | 2/0 |
| 4 | 1 | 3/0 |
| 5 | 3 | 6/0 |
| 6 | 0 | 6/0 |
| 7 | 5 | 11/0 |
| 8 | 3 | 14/0 |
| 9 | 4 | 18/1 |
| 10 | 2 | 20/1 |
| 11 | 0 | 20/1 |
| 12 | 4 | 24/1 |
| 13 | 4 | 28/1 |
| 14 | 4 | 32/2 |
| 15 | 4 | 36/2 |
| 16 | 4 | 40/2 |
| 17 | 6 | 46/2 |
| 18 | 0 | 46/2 |
| 19 | 5 | 51/2 |
| 20 | 5 | 56/2 |
| 21 | 0 | 56/2 |
| 22 | 8 | 64/2 |
| 23 | 3 | 67/2 |
| 24 | 1 | 68/2 |
| 25 | 9 | 77/2 |
| 26 | 4 | 81/2 |
| 27 | 0 | 81/3 |
| 28 | 0 | 81/3 |
| 29 | 5 | 86/3 |
| 30 | 5 | 91/3 |
| 31 | 10 | 101/3 |
| 32 | 6 | 107/3 |
| 33 | 0 | 107/4 |
| 34 | 5 | 112/4 |
| 35 | 7 | 119/4 |
| 36 | 5 | 124/4 |
| 37 | 4 | 128/4 |
| 38 | 11 | 139/4 |
| 39 | 4 | 143/4 |
| 40 | 4 | 147/4 |
| 41 | 6 | 153/4 |
| 42 | 1 | 154/4 |
| 43 | 4 | 158/5 |
| 44 | 7 | 165/5 |
| 45 | 1 | 166/6 |
| 46 | 11 | 177/6 |
| 47 | 2 | 179/6 |
| 48 | 4 | 183/6 |
| 49 | 1 | 184/6 |
| 50 | 4 | 188/6 |
| 51 | 1 | 189/6 |
| 52 | 3 | 192/7 |
| 53 | 6 | 198/7 |
| 54 | 7 | 205/7 |
| 55 | 7 | 212/7 |
| 56 | 1 | 213/7 |
| 57 | 2 | 215/7 |
| 58 | 2 | 217/7 |
| 59 | 3 | 220/7 |
| 60 | 1 | 221/7 |
| 61 | 0 | 221/8 |
| 62 | 4 | 225/8 |
| 63 | 4 | 229/8 |
| 64 | 1 | 230/8 |
| 65 | 6 | 236/8 |
| 66 | 1 | 237/9 |
| 67 | 18 | 255/9 |
| 68 | 1 | 256/10 |
Josh Hazlewood: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mitchell Marsh: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Matt Henry: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Usman Khawaja: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Nathan Lyon: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Steve Smith: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Pat Cummins: SirWellsy99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mitchell Starc: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Young: Dave Morton · Public domain
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Cameron Green: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tim Southee: YellowMonkey/Blnguyen · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kane Williamson: Mark Lockett · CC BY-SA 2.0
Tom Blundell: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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