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Photo: Michal Klajban
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
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Australia tour of New Zealand · 2023/24 · Men
8 Mar 2024 · Test
Hagley Oval, Christchurch · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 3
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tom Lathamcaught · Alex Carey · Pat Cummins8 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alex Carey · b Pat Cummins | 73 | 168 | 8 | 0 | 43.45 |
 Will Youngcaught · Alex Carey · Mitchell Starc0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alex Carey · b Mitchell Starc | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
 Kane Williamsonbowled · Pat Cummins6 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Pat Cummins | 51 | 107 | 6 | 0 | 47.66 |
| caught · Alex Carey · b Pat Cummins |
| 82 |
| 153 |
| 10 |
| 0 |
| 53.59 |
| Daryl Mitchellcaught · Alex Carey · Josh Hazlewood 6 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Alex Carey · b Josh Hazlewood | 58 | 98 | 6 | 1 | 59.18 |
|---|
 Tom Blundellcaught · Marnus Labuschagne · Cameron Green1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Marnus Labuschagne · b Cameron Green | 9 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 81.82 |
|---|
| Glenn Phillipsbowled · Nathan Lyon 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nathan Lyon | 16 | 46 | 2 | 0 | 34.78 |
|---|
| Scott Kuggeleijncaught · Cameron Green · Nathan Lyon 5 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Cameron Green · b Nathan Lyon | 44 | 49 | 5 | 2 | 89.80 |
|---|
 Matt Henrycaught · Josh Hazlewood · Nathan Lyon4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Josh Hazlewood · b Nathan Lyon | 16 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 145.45 |
|---|
 Tim Southeecaught · Alex Carey · Pat Cummins0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alex Carey · b Pat Cummins | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Ben Searsnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 5 · legbyes: 9 · wides: 3 · noballs: 5 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mitchell Starc3 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 22.0 | 3 | 94 | 1 | 4.27 | 2 | 0 |
 Josh Hazlewood6 maidens · 0 wides · 3 no-balls | 26.0 | 6 | 70 | 1 | 2.69 | 0 | 3 |
 Pat Cummins3 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 24.0 | 3 | 62 | 4 | 2.58 | 0 | 0 |
 Cameron Green2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 11.0 | 2 | 48 | 1 | 4.36 | 0 | 0 |
 Nathan Lyon1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 16.2 | 1 | 49 | 3 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Mitchell Marsh1 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 6.0 | 1 | 19 | 0 | 3.17 | 0 | 1 |
 Travis Head0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 3.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Marnus Labuschagne0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 9.00 | 1 | 1 |
1-6 (Will Young, 2.3) · 2-111 (Kane Williamson, 38.1) · 3-155 (Tom Latham, 55.1) · 4-278 (Daryl Mitchell, 86.4) · 5-286 (Rachin Ravindra, 89.1) · 6-296 (Tom Blundell, 92.1) · 7-349 (Glenn Phillips, 104.1) · 8-371 (Matt Henry, 106.4) · 9-372 (Tim Southee, 107.2) · 10-372 (Scott Kuggeleijn, 108.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 6/1 |
| 4 | 0 | 6/1 |
| 5 | 1 | 7/1 |
| 6 | 0 | 7/1 |
| 7 | 7 | 14/1 |
| 8 | 2 | 16/1 |
| 9 | 8 | 24/1 |
| 10 | 3 | 27/1 |
| 11 | 9 | 36/1 |
| 12 | 1 | 37/1 |
| 13 | 2 | 39/1 |
| 14 | 1 | 40/1 |
| 15 | 0 | 40/1 |
| 16 | 2 | 42/1 |
| 17 | 1 | 43/1 |
| 18 | 4 | 47/1 |
| 19 | 2 | 49/1 |
| 20 | 4 | 53/1 |
| 21 | 1 | 54/1 |
| 22 | 1 | 55/1 |
| 23 | 2 | 57/1 |
| 24 | 1 | 58/1 |
| 25 | 1 | 59/1 |
| 26 | 0 | 59/1 |
| 27 | 2 | 61/1 |
| 28 | 4 | 65/1 |
| 29 | 0 | 65/1 |
| 30 | 0 | 65/1 |
| 31 | 8 | 73/1 |
| 32 | 11 | 84/1 |
| 33 | 3 | 87/1 |
| 34 | 8 | 95/1 |
| 35 | 5 | 100/1 |
| 36 | 5 | 105/1 |
| 37 | 3 | 108/1 |
| 38 | 3 | 111/1 |
| 39 | 1 | 112/2 |
| 40 | 2 | 114/2 |
| 41 | 0 | 114/2 |
| 42 | 1 | 115/2 |
| 43 | 2 | 117/2 |
| 44 | 0 | 117/2 |
| 45 | 1 | 118/2 |
| 46 | 2 | 120/2 |
| 47 | 1 | 121/2 |
| 48 | 6 | 127/2 |
| 49 | 2 | 129/2 |
| 50 | 5 | 134/2 |
| 51 | 4 | 138/2 |
| 52 | 6 | 144/2 |
| 53 | 4 | 148/2 |
| 54 | 1 | 149/2 |
| 55 | 6 | 155/2 |
| 56 | 2 | 157/3 |
| 57 | 6 | 163/3 |
| 58 | 2 | 165/3 |
| 59 | 5 | 170/3 |
| 60 | 4 | 174/3 |
| 61 | 3 | 177/3 |
| 62 | 4 | 181/3 |
| 63 | 7 | 188/3 |
| 64 | 0 | 188/3 |
| 65 | 1 | 189/3 |
| 66 | 4 | 193/3 |
| 67 | 4 | 197/3 |
| 68 | 6 | 203/3 |
| 69 | 7 | 210/3 |
| 70 | 9 | 219/3 |
| 71 | 1 | 220/3 |
| 72 | 0 | 220/3 |
| 73 | 1 | 221/3 |
| 74 | 4 | 225/3 |
| 75 | 2 | 227/3 |
| 76 | 6 | 233/3 |
| 77 | 5 | 238/3 |
| 78 | 5 | 243/3 |
| 79 | 2 | 245/3 |
| 80 | 9 | 254/3 |
| 81 | 1 | 255/3 |
| 82 | 7 | 262/3 |
| 83 | 1 | 263/3 |
| 84 | 0 | 263/3 |
| 85 | 0 | 263/3 |
| 86 | 7 | 270/3 |
| 87 | 9 | 279/4 |
| 88 | 3 | 282/4 |
| 89 | 4 | 286/4 |
| 90 | 8 | 294/5 |
| 91 | 2 | 296/5 |
| 92 | 0 | 296/5 |
| 93 | 2 | 298/6 |
| 94 | 2 | 300/6 |
| 95 | 0 | 300/6 |
| 96 | 6 | 306/6 |
| 97 | 8 | 314/6 |
| 98 | 11 | 325/6 |
| 99 | 2 | 327/6 |
| 100 | 9 | 336/6 |
| 101 | 3 | 339/6 |
| 102 | 1 | 340/6 |
| 103 | 5 | 345/6 |
| 104 | 4 | 349/6 |
| 105 | 9 | 358/7 |
| 106 | 12 | 370/7 |
| 107 | 1 | 371/8 |
| 108 | 1 | 372/9 |
| 109 | 0 | 372/10 |
Josh Hazlewood: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mitchell Marsh: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Matt Henry: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Usman Khawaja: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Nathan Lyon: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Travis Head: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Steve Smith: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Pat Cummins: SirWellsy99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alex Carey: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mitchell Starc: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Young: Dave Morton · Public domain
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Cameron Green: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tim Southee: YellowMonkey/Blnguyen · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kane Williamson: Mark Lockett · CC BY-SA 2.0
Tom Blundell: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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