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Photo: Ranadipam Basu
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
West Indies tour of Bangladesh · 2025/26 · Men
18 Oct 2025 · ODI
Shere Bangla National Stadium, Mirpur · Venue photographRecorded result
Bangladesh more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Bangladesh started on 54%; Bangladesh batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Kingcaught · Nurul Hasan · Rishad Hossain 5 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Nurul Hasan · b Rishad Hossain | 44 | 60 | 5 | 1 | 73.33 |
| Alick Athanazelbw · Rishad Hossain 3 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Rishad Hossain | 27 | 36 | 3 | 1 | 75.00 |
| Keacy Cartycaught · Saif Hassan · Rishad Hossain 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Saif Hassan · b Rishad Hossain | 9 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 30.00 |
 Shai Hopecaught · Nurul Hasan · Tanvir Islam1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nurul Hasan · b Tanvir Islam | 15 | 32 | 1 | 0 | 46.88 |
| Sherfane Rutherfordcaught · Nurul Hasan · Rishad Hossain 0 fours · 0 sixes |
Bangladesh's chances ranged from 10% to 100% during the match (West Indies: 0% to 90%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 0 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0.00 |
 Roston Chasecaught · Nurul Hasan · Rishad Hossain0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nurul Hasan · b Rishad Hossain | 6 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 60.00 |
|---|
| Gudakesh Motielbw · Mehedi Hasan 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Mehedi Hasan | 3 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 21.43 |
|---|
| Justin Greavescaught · Saif Hassan · Mustafizur Rahman 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Saif Hassan · b Mustafizur Rahman | 12 | 23 | 1 | 0 | 52.17 |
|---|
| Romario Shepherdcaught · Mehedi Hasan · Mustafizur Rahman 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mehedi Hasan · b Mustafizur Rahman | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Khary Pierrenot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 7* | 14 | 1 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Jayden Sealescaught · Mehedi Hasan · Rishad Hossain 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mehedi Hasan · b Rishad Hossain | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 30.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Taskin Ahmed1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Tanvir Islam1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 46 | 1 | 4.60 | 0 | 0 |
 Mustafizur Rahman0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 16 | 2 | 3.20 | 0 | 0 |
 Mehedi Hasan3 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 3 | 16 | 1 | 1.60 | 2 | 0 |
 Rishad Hossain0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 35 | 6 | 3.89 | 1 | 0 |
| Saif Hassan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 2.33 | 0 | 0 |
1-51 (Alick Athanaze, 12.0) · 2-79 (Keacy Carty, 19.5) · 3-82 (Brandon King, 21.1) · 4-82 (Sherfane Rutherford, 21.4) · 5-92 (Roston Chase, 24.0) · 6-100 (Gudakesh Motie, 28.1) · 7-118 (Shai Hope, 33.1) · 8-121 (Romario Shepherd, 34.1) · 9-122 (Justin Greaves, 36.2) · 10-133 (Jayden Seales, 39.0)
Recorded target: 208 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 3 | 10 | 10/0 |
| 4 | 18 | 28/0 |
| 5 | 5 | 33/0 |
| 6 | 4 | 37/0 |
| 7 | 0 | 37/0 |
| 8 | 3 | 40/0 |
| 9 | 2 | 42/0 |
| 10 | 3 | 45/0 |
| 11 | 4 | 49/0 |
| 12 | 2 | 51/1 |
| 13 | 8 | 59/1 |
| 14 | 7 | 66/1 |
| 15 | 2 | 68/1 |
| 16 | 6 | 74/1 |
| 17 | 1 | 75/1 |
| 18 | 1 | 76/1 |
| 19 | 2 | 78/1 |
| 20 | 1 | 79/2 |
| 21 | 3 | 82/2 |
| 22 | 3 | 85/4 |
| 23 | 2 | 87/4 |
| 24 | 5 | 92/5 |
| 25 | 3 | 95/5 |
| 26 | 3 | 98/5 |
| 27 | 0 | 98/5 |
| 28 | 2 | 100/5 |
| 29 | 1 | 101/6 |
| 30 | 7 | 108/6 |
| 31 | 2 | 110/6 |
| 32 | 5 | 115/6 |
| 33 | 3 | 118/6 |
| 34 | 3 | 121/7 |
| 35 | 1 | 122/8 |
| 36 | 0 | 122/8 |
| 37 | 5 | 127/9 |
| 38 | 2 | 129/9 |
| 39 | 4 | 133/10 |
Tawhid Hridoy: Niriho khoka · CC BY 4.0
Roston Chase: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Rishad Hossain: Press Information Department · Public domain
Taskin Ahmed: Mahbub Ali Zaki · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shai Hope: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Soumya Sarkar: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mustafizur Rahman: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Najmul Hossain Shanto: Rocky Masum · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mehedi Hasan: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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