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Photo: Ranadipam Basu
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
West Indies tour of Bangladesh · 2025/26 · Men
18 Oct 2025 · ODI
Shere Bangla National Stadium, Mirpur · Venue photographRecorded result
Bangladesh more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Bangladesh started on 54%; Bangladesh batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saif Hassanlbw · Romario Shepherd 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Romario Shepherd | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
 Soumya Sarkarcaught · Roston Chase · Jayden Seales1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Roston Chase · b Jayden Seales | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 66.67 |
 Najmul Hossain Shantolbw · Khary Pierre3 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Khary Pierre | 32 | 63 | 3 | 0 | 50.79 |
 Tawhid Hridoycaught · Shai Hope · Justin Greaves3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shai Hope · b Justin Greaves | 51 | 90 |
Bangladesh's chances ranged from 10% to 100% during the match (West Indies: 0% to 90%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 56.67 |
| Mahidul Islam Ankonbowled · Roston Chase 3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Roston Chase | 46 | 76 | 3 | 0 | 60.53 |
|---|
 Mehedi Hasancaught · Justin Greaves · Roston Chase2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Justin Greaves · b Roston Chase | 17 | 27 | 2 | 0 | 62.96 |
|---|
| Nurul Hasancaught · Khary Pierre · Justin Greaves 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Khary Pierre · b Justin Greaves | 9 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 90.00 |
|---|
 Rishad Hossainbowled · Jayden Seales1 fours · 2 sixes | bowled · b Jayden Seales | 26 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Tanvir Islamnot out 0 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 9* | 4 | 0 | 1 | 225.00 |
|---|
 Taskin Ahmedcaught · Alick Athanaze · Jayden Seales0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alick Athanaze · b Jayden Seales | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Mustafizur Rahmanrun out · Romario Shepherd, Khary Pierre · Romario Shepherd0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Romario Shepherd, Khary Pierre | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 6 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Seales0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 48 | 3 | 6.86 | 0 | 0 |
| Romario Shepherd1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.4 | 1 | 31 | 1 | 4.04 | 2 | 0 |
| Khary Pierre2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 19 | 1 | 1.90 | 0 | 0 |
 Roston Chase0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 30 | 2 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Gudakesh Motie0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 44 | 0 | 4.40 | 2 | 0 |
| Justin Greaves0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 32 | 2 | 6.40 | 1 | 0 |
1-8 (Saif Hassan, 1.5) · 2-8 (Soumya Sarkar, 2.1) · 3-79 (Najmul Hossain Shanto, 22.1) · 4-115 (Tawhid Hridoy, 34.4) · 5-158 (Mehedi Hasan, 43.5) · 6-165 (Mahidul Islam Ankon, 45.2) · 7-182 (Nurul Hasan, 47.3) · 8-198 (Rishad Hossain, 48.4) · 9-198 (Taskin Ahmed, 48.5) · 10-207 (Mustafizur Rahman, 49.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 8/1 |
| 3 | 4 | 12/2 |
| 4 | 1 | 13/2 |
| 5 | 12 | 25/2 |
| 6 | 1 | 26/2 |
| 7 | 0 | 26/2 |
| 8 | 0 | 26/2 |
| 9 | 2 | 28/2 |
| 10 | 5 | 33/2 |
| 11 | 4 | 37/2 |
| 12 | 1 | 38/2 |
| 13 | 4 | 42/2 |
| 14 | 1 | 43/2 |
| 15 | 3 | 46/2 |
| 16 | 3 | 49/2 |
| 17 | 7 | 56/2 |
| 18 | 5 | 61/2 |
| 19 | 3 | 64/2 |
| 20 | 2 | 66/2 |
| 21 | 2 | 68/2 |
| 22 | 11 | 79/2 |
| 23 | 2 | 81/3 |
| 24 | 2 | 83/3 |
| 25 | 1 | 84/3 |
| 26 | 3 | 87/3 |
| 27 | 0 | 87/3 |
| 28 | 4 | 91/3 |
| 29 | 3 | 94/3 |
| 30 | 6 | 100/3 |
| 31 | 3 | 103/3 |
| 32 | 3 | 106/3 |
| 33 | 4 | 110/3 |
| 34 | 3 | 113/3 |
| 35 | 3 | 116/4 |
| 36 | 7 | 123/4 |
| 37 | 1 | 124/4 |
| 38 | 4 | 128/4 |
| 39 | 11 | 139/4 |
| 40 | 1 | 140/4 |
| 41 | 1 | 141/4 |
| 42 | 11 | 152/4 |
| 43 | 3 | 155/4 |
| 44 | 4 | 159/5 |
| 45 | 5 | 164/5 |
| 46 | 4 | 168/6 |
| 47 | 9 | 177/6 |
| 48 | 13 | 190/7 |
| 49 | 8 | 198/9 |
| 50 | 9 | 207/10 |
Tawhid Hridoy: Niriho khoka · CC BY 4.0
Roston Chase: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Rishad Hossain: Press Information Department · Public domain
Taskin Ahmed: Mahbub Ali Zaki · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shai Hope: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Soumya Sarkar: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mustafizur Rahman: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Najmul Hossain Shanto: Rocky Masum · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mehedi Hasan: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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