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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2023/24 · Men
28 Feb 2024 · ODI
Dubai International Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
United Arab Emirates more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
United Arab Emirates started on 64%; United Arab Emirates batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Johnsonlbw · Junaid Siddique 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Junaid Siddique | 4 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 22.22 |
| Srimantha Wijeratnecaught · T Suri · Zahoor Farooqi 6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · T Suri · b Zahoor Farooqi | 59 | 83 | 6 | 0 | 71.08 |
| Pargat Singhcaught · Zahoor Farooqi · Junaid Siddique 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Zahoor Farooqi · b Junaid Siddique | 6 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 75.00 |
| Navneet Dhaliwalcaught · Alishan Sharafu · Aayan Afzal Khan 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Alishan Sharafu · b Aayan Afzal Khan | 5 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 31.25 |
| Nicholas Kirtonnot out 7 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 68* | 90 | 7 | 0 | 75.56 |
United Arab Emirates's chances ranged from 0% to 74% during the match (Canada: 26% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| bowled · b Zahoor Farooqi |
| 8 |
| 16 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 50.00 |
| Shreyas Movvalbw · Aayan Afzal Khan 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Aayan Afzal Khan | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 37.50 |
|---|
 Saad Bin Zafarbowled · Zahoor Farooqi1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Zahoor Farooqi | 21 | 41 | 1 | 0 | 51.22 |
|---|
| Dillon Heyligernot out 2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 10* | 6 | 2 | 0 | 166.67 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 6 · wides: 7 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junaid Siddique1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.4 | 1 | 43 | 2 | 4.45 | 1 | 0 |
| Sanchit Sharma2 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Aayan Afzal Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 34 | 2 | 3.78 | 0 | 0 |
| Zahoor Farooqi0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 37 | 3 | 4.11 | 3 | 0 |
| Basil Hameed1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 31 | 0 | 3.44 | 2 | 0 |
| Zuhaib Zubair0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 4.86 | 0 | 0 |
1-10 (Aaron Johnson, 4.4) · 2-18 (Pargat Singh, 7.0) · 3-46 (Navneet Dhaliwal, 13.4) · 4-110 (Srimantha Wijeratne, 28.2) · 5-127 (Harsh Thaker, 32.5) · 6-134 (Shreyas Movva, 35.2) · 7-183 (Saad Bin Zafar, 46.1)
Recorded target: 195 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 0 | 1/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 5/0 |
| 4 | 0 | 5/0 |
| 5 | 5 | 10/1 |
| 6 | 2 | 12/1 |
| 7 | 6 | 18/2 |
| 8 | 10 | 28/2 |
| 9 | 1 | 29/2 |
| 10 | 6 | 35/2 |
| 11 | 4 | 39/2 |
| 12 | 3 | 42/2 |
| 13 | 3 | 45/2 |
| 14 | 2 | 47/3 |
| 15 | 2 | 49/3 |
| 16 | 3 | 52/3 |
| 17 | 2 | 54/3 |
| 18 | 4 | 58/3 |
| 19 | 6 | 64/3 |
| 20 | 1 | 65/3 |
| 21 | 2 | 67/3 |
| 22 | 7 | 74/3 |
| 23 | 8 | 82/3 |
| 24 | 5 | 87/3 |
| 25 | 6 | 93/3 |
| 26 | 6 | 99/3 |
| 27 | 4 | 103/3 |
| 28 | 6 | 109/3 |
| 29 | 3 | 112/4 |
| 30 | 4 | 116/4 |
| 31 | 5 | 121/4 |
| 32 | 2 | 123/4 |
| 33 | 4 | 127/5 |
| 34 | 2 | 129/5 |
| 35 | 4 | 133/5 |
| 36 | 2 | 135/6 |
| 37 | 2 | 137/6 |
| 38 | 3 | 140/6 |
| 39 | 8 | 148/6 |
| 40 | 2 | 150/6 |
| 41 | 8 | 158/6 |
| 42 | 3 | 161/6 |
| 43 | 7 | 168/6 |
| 44 | 0 | 168/6 |
| 45 | 8 | 176/6 |
| 46 | 7 | 183/6 |
| 47 | 9 | 192/7 |
| 48 | 6 | 198/7 |
Saad Bin Zafar: Apnagm · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alishan Sharafu: Sharafu.abuali · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
