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ICC Men's Cricket World Cup League 2 · 2023/24 · Men
28 Feb 2024 · ODI
Dubai International Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
United Arab Emirates more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
United Arab Emirates started on 64%; United Arab Emirates batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waseem Muhammadcaught and bowled · Harsh Thaker 6 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Harsh Thaker | 49 | 82 | 6 | 0 | 59.76 |
| T Surirun out · Srimantha Wijeratne, Shreyas Movva · Kaleem Sana 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Srimantha Wijeratne, Shreyas Movva | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Alishan Sharafubowled · Kaleem Sana3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Kaleem Sana | 15 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 62.50 |
| Asif Khancaught · Aaron Johnson · Dillon Heyliger 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aaron Johnson · b Dillon Heyliger | 16 | 27 | 2 | 0 | 59.26 |
| Rahul Chopralbw · Saad Bin Zafar 0 fours · 0 sixes |
United Arab Emirates's chances ranged from 0% to 74% during the match (Canada: 26% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| lbw · b Saad Bin Zafar |
| 4 |
| 15 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 26.67 |
| Basil Hameedcaught · Pargat Singh · Dillon Heyliger 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Pargat Singh · b Dillon Heyliger | 19 | 53 | 0 | 0 | 35.85 |
|---|
| Aayan Afzal Khancaught · Saad Bin Zafar · Kaleem Sana 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Saad Bin Zafar · b Kaleem Sana | 38 | 50 | 3 | 0 | 76.00 |
|---|
| Zuhaib Zubairlbw · Ammar Khalid 3 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Ammar Khalid | 31 | 26 | 3 | 1 | 119.23 |
|---|
| Sanchit Sharmabowled · Kaleem Sana 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Kaleem Sana | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Zahoor Farooqinot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Junaid Siddiquecaught · Harsh Thaker · Kaleem Sana 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Harsh Thaker · b Kaleem Sana | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 15 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ammar Khalid1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 38 | 1 | 4.22 | 0 | 0 |
| Kaleem Sana1 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.5 | 1 | 42 | 4 | 4.75 | 5 | 0 |
| Dillon Heyliger0 maidens · 10 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 52 | 2 | 5.20 | 10 | 0 |
| Harsh Thaker0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Saad Bin Zafar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 29 | 1 | 2.90 | 0 | 0 |
1-7 (T Suri, 1.3) · 2-45 (Alishan Sharafu, 9.2) · 3-81 (Asif Khan, 17.0) · 4-94 (Rahul Chopra, 21.1) · 5-107 (Waseem Muhammad, 27.3) · 6-143 (Basil Hameed, 40.2) · 7-182 (Aayan Afzal Khan, 45.5) · 8-190 (Zuhaib Zubair, 46.5) · 9-194 (Sanchit Sharma, 47.4) · 10-194 (Junaid Siddique, 47.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 10 | 11/1 |
| 3 | 10 | 21/1 |
| 4 | 4 | 25/1 |
| 5 | 0 | 25/1 |
| 6 | 2 | 27/1 |
| 7 | 8 | 35/1 |
| 8 | 4 | 39/1 |
| 9 | 6 | 45/1 |
| 10 | 4 | 49/2 |
| 11 | 9 | 58/2 |
| 12 | 0 | 58/2 |
| 13 | 2 | 60/2 |
| 14 | 5 | 65/2 |
| 15 | 3 | 68/2 |
| 16 | 6 | 74/2 |
| 17 | 7 | 81/3 |
| 18 | 2 | 83/3 |
| 19 | 4 | 87/3 |
| 20 | 2 | 89/3 |
| 21 | 5 | 94/3 |
| 22 | 4 | 98/4 |
| 23 | 1 | 99/4 |
| 24 | 2 | 101/4 |
| 25 | 2 | 103/4 |
| 26 | 2 | 105/4 |
| 27 | 1 | 106/4 |
| 28 | 2 | 108/5 |
| 29 | 4 | 112/5 |
| 30 | 4 | 116/5 |
| 31 | 2 | 118/5 |
| 32 | 2 | 120/5 |
| 33 | 3 | 123/5 |
| 34 | 1 | 124/5 |
| 35 | 3 | 127/5 |
| 36 | 2 | 129/5 |
| 37 | 1 | 130/5 |
| 38 | 2 | 132/5 |
| 39 | 7 | 139/5 |
| 40 | 4 | 143/5 |
| 41 | 8 | 151/6 |
| 42 | 2 | 153/6 |
| 43 | 10 | 163/6 |
| 44 | 7 | 170/6 |
| 45 | 4 | 174/6 |
| 46 | 8 | 182/7 |
| 47 | 9 | 191/8 |
| 48 | 3 | 194/10 |
Saad Bin Zafar: Apnagm · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alishan Sharafu: Sharafu.abuali · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
