NepalversusKuwait

8 Oct 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Nepal won by 58 runs

Nepal20.0 overs141/7 Kuwait18.1 overs83/10 Al Amerat Cricket Ground Oman Cricket (Ministry Turf 1) ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Nepal more likely to win

59%Nepal41%Kuwait

Why

In the last 4 T20 internationals between these sides, Nepal won 3 and Kuwait won 1
On results in T20 internationals so far, Nepal rate stronger than Kuwait (1,556 vs 1,538 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Nepal started on 55%; Nepal batted first.

Nepal’s chance of winning (%) · Kuwait is the rest

Nepal's chances ranged from 28% to 100% during the match (Kuwait: 0% to 72%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 4.3: NK Yadav to Usman Patel, Usman Patel out. Nepal up from 62% to 76%.
2nd inns 9.3: DS Airee to CV Anto, CV Anto out. Nepal up from 56% to 72%.
2nd inns 11.3: RK Paudel to MNM Aslam, MNM Aslam out. Nepal up from 67% to 84%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Nepal141/7 Kuwait83/10

Innings 1

Nepal

141/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Nepal batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Kushal Bhurtelbowled · Anudeep Chenthamara 3 fours · 3 sixes	bowled · b Anudeep Chenthamara	66	56	3	3	117.86
Aasif Sheikhlbw · Muhammad Aqif Farooq 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Muhammad Aqif Farooq	2	7	0	0	28.57
Rohit Kumarbowled · NT Rajendran 3 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b NT Rajendran	16	15	3	0	106.67
Kushal Mallabowled · NT Rajendran 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b NT Rajendran	4	9	0	0	44.44

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Muhammad Aqif Farooq0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	17	1	5.67	0
Yasin Patel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	16	0	5.33	0
NT Rajendran0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	40	2	10.00	0
Anudeep Chenthamara0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	22	2	5.50	1
Shiraz Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	32	0	8.00	0
Mohomad Aslam0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	10	1	5.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/0
2	2	4/0
3	1	5/1
4	8	13/1
5	14	27/1
6	12	39/1
7	7	46/1
8	1	47/2
9	4	51/2
10	2	53/3
11	7	60/3
12	3	63/4
13	4	67/4
14	7	74/4
15	6	80/4
16	6	86/4
17	16	102/4
18	6	108/5
19	27	135/5
20	6	141/7

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