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Photo: Dave Morton
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Sri Lanka tour of England · 2024 · Men
21 Aug 2024 · Test
Old Trafford · Venue photographRecorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ben Duckettlbw · Asitha Fernando2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Asitha Fernando | 18 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 90.00 |
 Daniel Lawrencecaught · Dinesh Chandimal · Vishwa Fernando3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Dinesh Chandimal · b Vishwa Fernando | 30 | 39 | 3 | 0 | 76.92 |
 Ollie Popebowled · Asitha Fernando1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Asitha Fernando | 6 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 75.00 |
| caught · Dinesh Chandimal · b Asitha Fernando |
| 42 |
| 57 |
| 4 |
| 0 |
| 73.68 |
 Harry Brookbowled · Prabath Jayasuriya4 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Prabath Jayasuriya | 56 | 73 | 4 | 0 | 76.71 |
|---|
 Jamie Smithcaught · Dinesh Chandimal · Prabath Jayasuriya8 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Dinesh Chandimal · b Prabath Jayasuriya | 111 | 148 | 8 | 1 | 75.00 |
|---|
 Chris Woakesbowled · Prabath Jayasuriya3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Prabath Jayasuriya | 25 | 65 | 3 | 0 | 38.46 |
|---|
| Gus Atkinsoncaught · Dinesh Chandimal · Milan Priyanath 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Dinesh Chandimal · b Milan Priyanath | 20 | 65 | 1 | 0 | 30.77 |
|---|
 Matthew Pottscaught · Kamindu Mendis · Vishwa Fernando2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kamindu Mendis · b Vishwa Fernando | 17 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 73.91 |
|---|
 Mark Woodbowled · Asitha Fernando3 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Asitha Fernando | 22 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 169.23 |
|---|
| Shoaib Bashirnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 5 | 0 | 0 | 60.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 1 · noballs: 3 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dhananjaya de Silva0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Prabath Jayasuriya5 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 31.0 | 5 | 85 | 3 | 2.74 | 0 | 0 |
| Asitha Fernando0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 18.0 | 0 | 103 | 4 | 5.72 | 1 | 0 |
 Vishwa Fernando1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 19.3 | 1 | 73 | 2 | 3.74 | 0 | 0 |
| Milan Priyanath0 maidens · 0 wides · 3 no-balls | 13.0 | 0 | 66 | 1 | 5.08 | 0 | 3 |
| Kamindu Mendis0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 6.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-30 (Ben Duckett, 6.3) · 2-40 (Ollie Pope, 8.4) · 3-67 (Daniel Lawrence, 14.3) · 4-125 (Joe Root, 25.3) · 5-187 (Harry Brook, 39.1) · 6-239 (Chris Woakes, 57.3) · 7-305 (Gus Atkinson, 76.5) · 8-315 (Jamie Smith, 79.4) · 9-348 (Mark Wood, 83.0) · 10-358 (Matthew Potts, 85.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 10/0 |
| 3 | 8 | 18/0 |
| 4 | 4 | 22/0 |
| 5 | 5 | 27/0 |
| 6 | 2 | 29/0 |
| 7 | 3 | 32/1 |
| 8 | 7 | 39/1 |
| 9 | 3 | 42/2 |
| 10 | 2 | 44/2 |
| 11 | 7 | 51/2 |
| 12 | 2 | 53/2 |
| 13 | 9 | 62/2 |
| 14 | 4 | 66/2 |
| 15 | 3 | 69/3 |
| 16 | 6 | 75/3 |
| 17 | 5 | 80/3 |
| 18 | 14 | 94/3 |
| 19 | 6 | 100/3 |
| 20 | 6 | 106/3 |
| 21 | 2 | 108/3 |
| 22 | 1 | 109/3 |
| 23 | 4 | 113/3 |
| 24 | 4 | 117/3 |
| 25 | 6 | 123/3 |
| 26 | 6 | 129/4 |
| 27 | 5 | 134/4 |
| 28 | 4 | 138/4 |
| 29 | 8 | 146/4 |
| 30 | 0 | 146/4 |
| 31 | 3 | 149/4 |
| 32 | 3 | 152/4 |
| 33 | 8 | 160/4 |
| 34 | 8 | 168/4 |
| 35 | 3 | 171/4 |
| 36 | 4 | 175/4 |
| 37 | 1 | 176/4 |
| 38 | 6 | 182/4 |
| 39 | 5 | 187/4 |
| 40 | 0 | 187/5 |
| 41 | 5 | 192/5 |
| 42 | 1 | 193/5 |
| 43 | 5 | 198/5 |
| 44 | 3 | 201/5 |
| 45 | 6 | 207/5 |
| 46 | 0 | 207/5 |
| 47 | 2 | 209/5 |
| 48 | 2 | 211/5 |
| 49 | 9 | 220/5 |
| 50 | 0 | 220/5 |
| 51 | 1 | 221/5 |
| 52 | 1 | 222/5 |
| 53 | 2 | 224/5 |
| 54 | 1 | 225/5 |
| 55 | 5 | 230/5 |
| 56 | 1 | 231/5 |
| 57 | 8 | 239/5 |
| 58 | 0 | 239/6 |
| 59 | 5 | 244/6 |
| 60 | 8 | 252/6 |
| 61 | 7 | 259/6 |
| 62 | 1 | 260/6 |
| 63 | 3 | 263/6 |
| 64 | 10 | 273/6 |
| 65 | 8 | 281/6 |
| 66 | 2 | 283/6 |
| 67 | 0 | 283/6 |
| 68 | 1 | 284/6 |
| 69 | 1 | 285/6 |
| 70 | 1 | 286/6 |
| 71 | 1 | 287/6 |
| 72 | 1 | 288/6 |
| 73 | 2 | 290/6 |
| 74 | 1 | 291/6 |
| 75 | 3 | 294/6 |
| 76 | 5 | 299/6 |
| 77 | 6 | 305/7 |
| 78 | 7 | 312/7 |
| 79 | 3 | 315/7 |
| 80 | 1 | 316/8 |
| 81 | 11 | 327/8 |
| 82 | 7 | 334/8 |
| 83 | 14 | 348/9 |
| 84 | 5 | 353/9 |
| 85 | 1 | 354/9 |
| 86 | 4 | 358/10 |
Daniel Lawrence: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Angelo Mathews: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Ollie Pope: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Matthew Potts: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Vishwa Fernando: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jamie Smith: Dave Morton · Public domain
Mark Wood: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Dinesh Chandimal: Amal316 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Chris Woakes: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dimuth Karunaratne: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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