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Photo: Dave Morton
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Sri Lanka tour of England · 2024 · Men
21 Aug 2024 · Test
Old Trafford · Venue photographRecorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 3
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nishan Madushkabowled · Chris Woakes 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Chris Woakes | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Dimuth Karunaratnecaught · Harry Brook · Mark Wood4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Harry Brook · b Mark Wood | 27 | 32 | 4 | 0 | 84.38 |
| Kusal Mendiscaught · Jamie Smith · Gus Atkinson 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jamie Smith · b Gus Atkinson | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Angelo Mathewscaught · Matthew Potts · Chris Woakes2 fours · 1 sixes |
| caught · Matthew Potts · b Chris Woakes |
| 65 |
| 145 |
| 2 |
| 1 |
| 44.83 |
 Dinesh Chandimalcaught · HPN Singh · Matthew Potts7 fours · 0 sixes | caught · HPN Singh · b Matthew Potts | 79 | 119 | 7 | 0 | 66.39 |
|---|
| Dhananjaya de Silvalbw · Matthew Potts 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Matthew Potts | 11 | 25 | 1 | 0 | 44.00 |
|---|
| Kamindu Mendiscaught · Joe Root · Gus Atkinson 15 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Joe Root · b Gus Atkinson | 113 | 183 | 15 | 1 | 61.75 |
|---|
| Milan Priyanathcaught · Ben Duckett · Joe Root 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ben Duckett · b Joe Root | 10 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Prabath Jayasuriyacaught · Harry Brook · Matthew Potts 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Harry Brook · b Matthew Potts | 5 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
 Vishwa Fernandolbw · Chris Woakes0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Chris Woakes | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Asitha Fernandonot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 9 · wides: 6 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chris Woakes6 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 22.0 | 6 | 58 | 3 | 2.64 | 0 | 0 |
| Gus Atkinson2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 17.0 | 2 | 89 | 2 | 5.24 | 0 | 0 |
| Shoaib Bashir0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 20.0 | 0 | 77 | 0 | 3.85 | 0 | 1 |
 Mark Wood1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.2 | 1 | 36 | 1 | 3.48 | 0 | 0 |
 Matthew Potts4 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls | 17.3 | 4 | 47 | 3 | 2.69 | 6 | 0 |
 Joe Root0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.4 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Daniel Lawrence0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-0 (Nishan Madushka, 0.3) · 2-1 (Kusal Mendis, 1.4) · 3-52 (Dimuth Karunaratne, 13.1) · 4-95 (Dhananjaya de Silva, 25.3) · 5-173 (Angelo Mathews, 50.4) · 6-190 (Milan Priyanath, 55.4) · 7-307 (Kamindu Mendis, 85.2) · 8-321 (Prabath Jayasuriya, 88.0) · 9-322 (Vishwa Fernando, 89.0) · 10-326 (Dinesh Chandimal, 89.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/1 |
| 2 | 4 | 4/2 |
| 3 | 6 | 10/2 |
| 4 | 6 | 16/2 |
| 5 | 5 | 21/2 |
| 6 | 1 | 22/2 |
| 7 | 0 | 22/2 |
| 8 | 8 | 30/2 |
| 9 | 5 | 35/2 |
| 10 | 1 | 36/2 |
| 11 | 8 | 44/2 |
| 12 | 6 | 50/2 |
| 13 | 2 | 52/2 |
| 14 | 5 | 57/3 |
| 15 | 11 | 68/3 |
| 16 | 4 | 72/3 |
| 17 | 2 | 74/3 |
| 18 | 1 | 75/3 |
| 19 | 6 | 81/3 |
| 20 | 1 | 82/3 |
| 21 | 1 | 83/3 |
| 22 | 1 | 84/3 |
| 23 | 5 | 89/3 |
| 24 | 2 | 91/3 |
| 25 | 4 | 95/3 |
| 26 | 0 | 95/4 |
| 27 | 3 | 98/4 |
| 28 | 1 | 99/4 |
| 29 | 1 | 100/4 |
| 30 | 7 | 107/4 |
| 31 | 9 | 116/4 |
| 32 | 2 | 118/4 |
| 33 | 2 | 120/4 |
| 34 | 1 | 121/4 |
| 35 | 0 | 121/4 |
| 36 | 3 | 124/4 |
| 37 | 2 | 126/4 |
| 38 | 7 | 133/4 |
| 39 | 8 | 141/4 |
| 40 | 5 | 146/4 |
| 41 | 0 | 146/4 |
| 42 | 2 | 148/4 |
| 43 | 5 | 153/4 |
| 44 | 0 | 153/4 |
| 45 | 4 | 157/4 |
| 46 | 0 | 157/4 |
| 47 | 1 | 158/4 |
| 48 | 10 | 168/4 |
| 49 | 1 | 169/4 |
| 50 | 4 | 173/4 |
| 51 | 2 | 175/5 |
| 52 | 7 | 182/5 |
| 53 | 0 | 182/5 |
| 54 | 5 | 187/5 |
| 55 | 3 | 190/5 |
| 56 | 1 | 191/6 |
| 57 | 5 | 196/6 |
| 58 | 2 | 198/6 |
| 59 | 0 | 198/6 |
| 60 | 6 | 204/6 |
| 61 | 4 | 208/6 |
| 62 | 3 | 211/6 |
| 63 | 3 | 214/6 |
| 64 | 0 | 214/6 |
| 65 | 2 | 216/6 |
| 66 | 13 | 229/6 |
| 67 | 0 | 229/6 |
| 68 | 12 | 241/6 |
| 69 | 6 | 247/6 |
| 70 | 2 | 249/6 |
| 71 | 5 | 254/6 |
| 72 | 5 | 259/6 |
| 73 | 5 | 264/6 |
| 74 | 1 | 265/6 |
| 75 | 3 | 268/6 |
| 76 | 3 | 271/6 |
| 77 | 3 | 274/6 |
| 78 | 1 | 275/6 |
| 79 | 5 | 280/6 |
| 80 | 4 | 284/6 |
| 81 | 6 | 290/6 |
| 82 | 1 | 291/6 |
| 83 | 0 | 291/6 |
| 84 | 12 | 303/6 |
| 85 | 1 | 304/6 |
| 86 | 10 | 314/7 |
| 87 | 2 | 316/7 |
| 88 | 5 | 321/8 |
| 89 | 1 | 322/9 |
| 90 | 4 | 326/10 |
Daniel Lawrence: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Angelo Mathews: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Ollie Pope: Kroome111 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Matthew Potts: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Vishwa Fernando: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jamie Smith: Dave Morton · Public domain
Mark Wood: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Dinesh Chandimal: Amal316 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Chris Woakes: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Dimuth Karunaratne: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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