BangladeshversusSri Lanka

25 Jun 2025 · Test

Sinhalese Sports Club Ground · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Sri Lanka won by 78 runs

Bangladesh79.3 overs247/10 Sri Lanka116.5 overs458/10 Bangladesh44.2 overs133/10 Sinhalese Sports Club Ground ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Sri Lanka more likely to win

12%Bangladesh18%Draw70%Sri Lanka

Why

On results in Tests so far, Sri Lanka rate stronger than Bangladesh (1,486 vs 1,342 on our results rating)
Sri Lanka are playing at home in Sri Lanka
In the last 10 Tests between these sides, Sri Lanka won 5 and Bangladesh won 1 (4 drawn)

Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.