Sri LankaversusPakistan

23 Sept 2025 · T20

Sheikh Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Pakistan won by 5 wickets

Sri Lanka20.0 overs133/8 Pakistan18.0 overs138/5 Sheikh Zayed Stadium, Abu Dhabi ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Pakistan more likely to win

42%Sri Lanka58%Pakistan

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Pakistan rate stronger than Sri Lanka (1,618 vs 1,563 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Sri Lanka started on 39%; Sri Lanka batted first.

Sri Lanka’s chance of winning (%) · Pakistan is the rest

Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 0% to 40% during the match (Pakistan: 61% to 100%).

Biggest swings

0.2: Shaheen Shah Afridi to BKG Mendis, BKG Mendis out. Pakistan up from 61% to 73%.
2nd inns 8.1: PWH de Silva to Agha Salman, Agha Salman out. Sri Lanka up from 16% to 31%.
2nd inns 11.1: PVD Chameera to Mohammad Haris, Mohammad Haris out. Sri Lanka up from 13% to 29%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Sri Lanka133/8 Pakistan138/5

Innings 2

Pakistan

138/518.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Pakistan batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Sahibzada Farhancaught · Kamindu Mendis · Mahesh Theekshana 1 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Kamindu Mendis · b Mahesh Theekshana	24	15	1	2	160.00
Fakhar Zamancaught · Wanindu Hasaranga · Mahesh Theekshana 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Wanindu Hasaranga · b Mahesh Theekshana	17	19	2	0	89.47
Saim Ayubbowled · Wanindu Hasaranga 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Wanindu Hasaranga	2	3	0	0	66.67
Salman Ali Aghalbw · Wanindu Hasaranga 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Wanindu Hasaranga	5	6	0	0	83.33
Hussain Talatnot out 4 fours · 0 sixes	not out

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Nuwan Thushara0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	29	0	9.67	0
Dushmantha Chameera0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	31	1	7.75	0
Mahesh Theekshana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	24	2	6.00	0
Wanindu Hasaranga0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	27	2	6.75	0
Charith Asalanka0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	11	0	5.50	0
Chamika Karunaratne0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	11	0	11.00	2

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/0
2	4	8/0
3	18	26/0
4	10	36/0
5	7	43/0
6	5	48/2
7	2	50/3
8	7	57/3
9	3	60/4
10	11	71/4
11	9	80/4
12	2	82/5
13	5	87/5
14	10	97/5
15	7	104/5
16	4	108/5
17	12	120/5
18	18	138/5

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.