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ICC Men's T20 World Cup · 2025/26 · Men
13 Feb 2026 · T20
MA Chidambaram Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Netherlands more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
United States of America started on 39%; United States of America batted first.
United States of America's chances ranged from 38% to 100% during the match (Netherlands: 0% to 62%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Levittbowled · Nosthush Kenjige 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nosthush Kenjige | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 42.86 |
| Max O'Dowdcaught · Milind Kumar · Harmeet Singh 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Milind Kumar · b Harmeet Singh | 13 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 118.18 |
 Bas de Leedecaught · Monank Patel · Harmeet Singh1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Monank Patel · b Harmeet Singh | 23 | 17 | 1 | 1 | 135.29 |
 Colin Ackermanncaught · Shubham Ranjane · Shadley van Schalkwyk0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shubham Ranjane · b Shadley van Schalkwyk | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| bowled · b Harmeet Singh |
| 20 |
| 14 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 142.86 |
 Zach Lion-Cachetbowled · Mohammad Mohsin1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mohammad Mohsin | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 120.00 |
|---|
 Roelof van der Merwelbw · Harmeet Singh0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Harmeet Singh | 10 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 90.91 |
|---|
| Logan van Beekbowled · Mohammad Mohsin 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Mohammad Mohsin | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
| Aryan Duttbowled · Shadley van Schalkwyk 0 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Shadley van Schalkwyk | 9 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 128.57 |
|---|
| Kyle Kleinnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 6* | 11 | 0 | 0 | 54.55 |
|---|
| Fred Klaassencaught · Milind Kumar · Shadley van Schalkwyk 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Milind Kumar · b Shadley van Schalkwyk | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 8 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ali Khan0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 9.00 | 6 | 0 |
| Nosthush Kenjige0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 20 | 1 | 6.67 | 1 | 0 |
| Harmeet Singh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 21 | 4 | 5.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Shadley van Schalkwyk0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.5 | 0 | 21 | 3 | 7.41 | 1 | 0 |
| Mohammad Mohsin0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 19 | 2 | 6.33 | 0 | 0 |
 Shubham Ranjane0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-9 (Michael Levitt, 1.1) · 2-41 (Max O'Dowd, 5.0) · 3-45 (Colin Ackermann, 5.4) · 4-53 (Bas de Leede, 6.3) · 5-66 (Zach Lion-Cachet, 8.0) · 6-75 (Scott Edwards, 10.0) · 7-84 (Roelof van der Merwe, 11.4) · 8-86 (Logan van Beek, 12.3) · 9-96 (Aryan Dutt, 13.4) · 10-103 (Fred Klaassen, 15.5)
Recorded target: 197 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 9/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 14/1 |
| 3 | 9 | 23/1 |
| 4 | 12 | 35/1 |
| 5 | 6 | 41/2 |
| 6 | 10 | 51/3 |
| 7 | 5 | 56/4 |
| 8 | 10 | 66/5 |
| 9 | 4 | 70/5 |
| 10 | 5 | 75/6 |
| 11 | 5 | 80/6 |
| 12 | 5 | 85/7 |
| 13 | 4 | 89/8 |
| 14 | 9 | 98/9 |
| 15 | 3 | 101/9 |
| 16 | 2 | 103/10 |
Ali Khan: U.S. Embassy Port of Spain · Public domain
Shubham Ranjane: Dee03 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Bas de Leede: Dave Morton · Public domain
Colin Ackermann: Dave Morton · Public domain
Roelof van der Merwe: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Zach Lion-Cachet: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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