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ICC Men's T20 World Cup · 2025/26 · Men
13 Feb 2026 · T20
MA Chidambaram Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Netherlands more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
United States of America started on 39%; United States of America batted first.
United States of America's chances ranged from 38% to 100% during the match (Netherlands: 0% to 62%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monank Patelcaught · Scott Edwards · Bas de Leede 3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Scott Edwards · b Bas de Leede | 36 | 22 | 3 | 1 | 163.64 |
| Shayan Jahangirbowled · Kyle Klein 1 fours · 2 sixes | bowled · b Kyle Klein | 20 | 14 | 1 | 2 | 142.86 |
| Saiteja Mukkamallacaught · Colin Ackermann · Bas de Leede 5 fours · 4 sixes | caught · Colin Ackermann · b Bas de Leede | 79 | 51 | 5 | 4 | 154.90 |
| Sanjay Krishnamurthibowled · Fred Klaassen 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Fred Klaassen | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
 Shubham Ranjanenot out3 fours · 2 sixes |
| not out |
| 48* |
| 24 |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 200.00 |
| Milind Kumarcaught · Scott Edwards · Bas de Leede 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Scott Edwards · b Bas de Leede | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
| Harmeet Singhcaught · Roelof van der Merwe · Logan van Beek 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Roelof van der Merwe · b Logan van Beek | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Mohammad Mohsinnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aryan Dutt0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 12.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Logan van Beek0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 28 | 1 | 7.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Kyle Klein0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 35 | 1 | 8.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Fred Klaassen0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 32 | 1 | 10.67 | 0 | 0 |
 Roelof van der Merwe0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 36 | 0 | 12.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Bas de Leede0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 37 | 3 | 9.25 | 0 | 0 |
1-27 (Shayan Jahangir, 2.5) · 2-82 (Monank Patel, 9.0) · 3-105 (Sanjay Krishnamurthi, 11.0) · 4-159 (Saiteja Mukkamalla, 16.5) · 5-185 (Milind Kumar, 18.4) · 6-188 (Harmeet Singh, 19.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | 12/0 |
| 2 | 11 | 23/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 27/1 |
| 4 | 7 | 34/1 |
| 5 | 8 | 42/1 |
| 6 | 11 | 53/1 |
| 7 | 12 | 65/1 |
| 8 | 8 | 73/1 |
| 9 | 9 | 82/2 |
| 10 | 14 | 96/2 |
| 11 | 9 | 105/3 |
| 12 | 9 | 114/3 |
| 13 | 8 | 122/3 |
| 14 | 14 | 136/3 |
| 15 | 12 | 148/3 |
| 16 | 5 | 153/3 |
| 17 | 7 | 160/4 |
| 18 | 14 | 174/4 |
| 19 | 13 | 187/5 |
| 20 | 9 | 196/6 |
Ali Khan: U.S. Embassy Port of Spain · Public domain
Shubham Ranjane: Dee03 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Bas de Leede: Dave Morton · Public domain
Colin Ackermann: Dave Morton · Public domain
Roelof van der Merwe: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Zach Lion-Cachet: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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