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Photo: Wss ltd
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
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New Zealand tour of Sri Lanka · 2024/25 · Men
9 Nov 2024 · T20
Rangiri Dambulla International Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
New Zealand started on 58%; New Zealand batted first.
New Zealand's chances ranged from 0% to 68% during the match (Sri Lanka: 32% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pathum Nissankabowled · Zakary Foulkes 2 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Zakary Foulkes | 19 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 135.71 |
| Kusal Mendislbw · Mitchell Santner 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Mitchell Santner | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Kushal Janith Pereralbw · Michael Bracewell 2 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Michael Bracewell | 23 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 135.29 |
| Kamindu Mendiscaught · Ish Sodhi · Glenn Phillips 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ish Sodhi · b Glenn Phillips | 23 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 143.75 |
| Charith Asalankanot out 1 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 35* | 28 | 1 | 2 | 125.00 |
| caught · Mitchell Hay · b Zakary Foulkes |
| 4 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 100.00 |
 Wanindu Hasarangacaught · Mitchell Santner · Zakary Foulkes3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mitchell Santner · b Zakary Foulkes | 22 | 23 | 3 | 0 | 95.65 |
|---|
| Dunith Wellalagenot out 1 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 11* | 7 | 1 | 1 | 157.14 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 2 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jacob Duffy0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 29 | 0 | 7.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Mitchell Santner0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 7.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Bracewell0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 31 | 1 | 7.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Zakary Foulkes0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 20 | 3 | 6.67 | 1 | 0 |
 Ish Sodhi0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 8.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Glenn Phillips0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-3 (Kusal Mendis, 1.5) · 2-43 (Pathum Nissanka, 5.3) · 3-55 (Kushal Janith Perera, 7.0) · 4-82 (Kamindu Mendis, 10.4) · 5-87 (Bhanuka Rajapaksa, 11.3) · 6-125 (Wanindu Hasaranga, 17.2)
Recorded target: 136 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 3/1 |
| 3 | 12 | 15/1 |
| 4 | 13 | 28/1 |
| 5 | 13 | 41/1 |
| 6 | 8 | 49/2 |
| 7 | 6 | 55/3 |
| 8 | 4 | 59/3 |
| 9 | 6 | 65/3 |
| 10 | 13 | 78/3 |
| 11 | 4 | 82/4 |
| 12 | 5 | 87/5 |
| 13 | 8 | 95/5 |
| 14 | 7 | 102/5 |
| 15 | 6 | 108/5 |
| 16 | 9 | 117/5 |
| 17 | 4 | 121/5 |
| 18 | 8 | 129/6 |
| 19 | 11 | 140/6 |
Wanindu Hasaranga: 04 ATM 04 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jacob Duffy: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ish Sodhi: www.davidmolloyphotography.com from Sydney, Australia · CC BY 2.0
Will Young: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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