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Photo: Wss ltd
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
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New Zealand tour of Sri Lanka · 2024/25 · Men
9 Nov 2024 · T20
Rangiri Dambulla International Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
New Zealand started on 58%; New Zealand batted first.
New Zealand's chances ranged from 0% to 68% during the match (Sri Lanka: 32% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Robinsonbowled · Dunith Wellalage 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Dunith Wellalage | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
 Will Younglbw · Mahesh Theekshana1 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Mahesh Theekshana | 19 | 19 | 1 | 1 | 100.00 |
| Mark Chapmancaught · Wanindu Hasaranga · Nuwan Thushara 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Wanindu Hasaranga · b Nuwan Thushara | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
| Glenn Phillipslbw · Wanindu Hasaranga 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Wanindu Hasaranga | 13 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Michael Bracewellcaught · Kamindu Mendis · Nuwan Thushara 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Kamindu Mendis |
| 27 |
| 24 |
| 2 |
| 1 |
| 112.50 |
| Mitchell Haycaught · Kusal Mendis · Matheesha Pathirana 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kusal Mendis · b Matheesha Pathirana | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Josh Clarksoncaught · Kamindu Mendis · Matheesha Pathirana 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kamindu Mendis · b Matheesha Pathirana | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Mitchell Santnerstumped · Kusal Mendis · Wanindu Hasaranga 2 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Kusal Mendis · b Wanindu Hasaranga | 16 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Zakary Foulkesnot out 1 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 27* | 16 | 1 | 1 | 168.75 |
|---|
 Ish Sodhicaught · Charith Asalanka · Dunith Wellalage1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Charith Asalanka · b Dunith Wellalage | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 111.11 |
|---|
 Jacob Duffycaught · Kusal Mendis · Dunith Wellalage0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kusal Mendis · b Dunith Wellalage | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 6 · wides: 5 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mahesh Theekshana0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 5.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Nuwan Thushara0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 4.67 | 1 | 0 |
| Dunith Wellalage0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.3 | 0 | 20 | 3 | 5.71 | 0 | 0 |
 Wanindu Hasaranga0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 20 | 2 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Charith Asalanka0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 12.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Matheesha Pathirana0 maidens · 4 wides · 1 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 25 | 2 | 8.33 | 4 | 1 |
1-16 (Tim Robinson, 2.2) · 2-20 (Mark Chapman, 3.5) · 3-31 (Will Young, 6.0) · 4-53 (Glenn Phillips, 8.5) · 5-59 (Mitchell Hay, 9.5) · 6-67 (Josh Clarkson, 11.4) · 7-86 (Michael Bracewell, 14.4) · 8-96 (Mitchell Santner, 15.4) · 9-135 (Ish Sodhi, 19.2) · 10-135 (Jacob Duffy, 19.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | 12/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 16/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 18/1 |
| 4 | 3 | 21/2 |
| 5 | 8 | 29/2 |
| 6 | 2 | 31/3 |
| 7 | 3 | 34/3 |
| 8 | 13 | 47/3 |
| 9 | 6 | 53/4 |
| 10 | 7 | 60/5 |
| 11 | 5 | 65/5 |
| 12 | 3 | 68/6 |
| 13 | 12 | 80/6 |
| 14 | 3 | 83/6 |
| 15 | 7 | 90/7 |
| 16 | 7 | 97/8 |
| 17 | 20 | 117/8 |
| 18 | 8 | 125/8 |
| 19 | 8 | 133/8 |
| 20 | 2 | 135/10 |
Wanindu Hasaranga: 04 ATM 04 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jacob Duffy: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ish Sodhi: www.davidmolloyphotography.com from Sydney, Australia · CC BY 2.0
Will Young: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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