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South Africa tour of Bangladesh · 2024/25 · Men
21 Oct 2024 · Test
Shere Bangla National Stadium, Mirpur · Venue photographRecorded result
South Africa more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mahmudul Hasan Joybowled · Dane Piedt2 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Dane Piedt | 30 | 97 | 2 | 1 | 30.93 |
| Shadman Islamcaught · Aiden Markram · Wiaan Mulder 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Aiden Markram · b Wiaan Mulder | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Mominul Haquecaught · Kyle Verreynne · Wiaan Mulder1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kyle Verreynne · b Wiaan Mulder | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 66.67 |
 |
| caught · Keshav Maharaj · b Wiaan Mulder |
| 7 |
| 7 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 100.00 |
 Mushfiqur Rahimbowled · Kagiso Rabada2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Kagiso Rabada | 11 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 55.00 |
|---|
 Litton Dascaught · Tristan Stubbs · Kagiso Rabada0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tristan Stubbs · b Kagiso Rabada | 1 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 7.69 |
|---|
 Mehedi Hasanlbw · Keshav Maharaj3 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Keshav Maharaj | 13 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 54.17 |
|---|
 Jaker Alistumped · Kyle Verreynne · Keshav Maharaj0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Kyle Verreynne · b Keshav Maharaj | 2 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 13.33 |
|---|
 Nayeem Hasancaught · Wiaan Mulder · Kagiso Rabada1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Wiaan Mulder · b Kagiso Rabada | 8 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
 Taijul Islambowled · Keshav Maharaj2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Keshav Maharaj | 16 | 31 | 2 | 0 | 51.61 |
|---|
 Hasan Mahmudnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 13 | 0 | 0 | 30.77 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 0 · noballs: 5 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kagiso Rabada4 maidens · 0 wides · 4 no-balls | 11.0 | 4 | 26 | 3 | 2.36 | 0 | 4 |
 Wiaan Mulder4 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 8.0 | 4 | 22 | 3 | 2.75 | 0 | 1 |
 Keshav Maharaj4 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 16.1 | 4 | 34 | 3 | 2.10 | 0 | 0 |
| Dane Piedt1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 1 | 19 | 1 | 3.80 | 0 | 0 |
1-6 (Shadman Islam, 1.4) · 2-13 (Mominul Haque, 3.3) · 3-21 (Najmul Hossain Shanto, 5.5) · 4-40 (Mushfiqur Rahim, 13.5) · 5-45 (Litton Das, 19.1) · 6-60 (Mehedi Hasan, 26.1) · 7-76 (Mahmudul Hasan Joy, 30.0) · 8-76 (Jaker Ali, 30.3) · 9-102 (Nayeem Hasan, 37.5) · 10-106 (Taijul Islam, 40.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 0 | 6/1 |
| 3 | 2 | 8/1 |
| 4 | 9 | 17/2 |
| 5 | 0 | 17/2 |
| 6 | 4 | 21/3 |
| 7 | 0 | 21/3 |
| 8 | 4 | 25/3 |
| 9 | 5 | 30/3 |
| 10 | 0 | 30/3 |
| 11 | 4 | 34/3 |
| 12 | 0 | 34/3 |
| 13 | 1 | 35/3 |
| 14 | 5 | 40/4 |
| 15 | 1 | 41/4 |
| 16 | 0 | 41/4 |
| 17 | 0 | 41/4 |
| 18 | 3 | 44/4 |
| 19 | 1 | 45/4 |
| 20 | 4 | 49/5 |
| 21 | 0 | 49/5 |
| 22 | 5 | 54/5 |
| 23 | 4 | 58/5 |
| 24 | 0 | 58/5 |
| 25 | 0 | 58/5 |
| 26 | 2 | 60/5 |
| 27 | 0 | 60/6 |
| 28 | 6 | 66/6 |
| 29 | 2 | 68/6 |
| 30 | 8 | 76/7 |
| 31 | 3 | 79/8 |
| 32 | 4 | 83/8 |
| 33 | 2 | 85/8 |
| 34 | 0 | 85/8 |
| 35 | 4 | 89/8 |
| 36 | 6 | 95/8 |
| 37 | 6 | 101/8 |
| 38 | 4 | 105/9 |
| 39 | 1 | 106/9 |
| 40 | 0 | 106/9 |
| 41 | 0 | 106/10 |
Ryan Rickelton: Dave Morton · Public domain
Wiaan Mulder: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aiden Markram: Marcel Sigg · CC0
Jaker Ali: Press Information Department · Public domain
Hasan Mahmud: Press Information Department · Public domain
Keshav Maharaj: Dave Morton · Public domain
Mahmudul Hasan Joy: Press Information Department · Public domain
Mominul Haque: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Taijul Islam: Press Information Department · Public domain
Kagiso Rabada: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Litton Das: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Najmul Hossain Shanto: Rocky Masum · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nayeem Hasan: IqbalHossain · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mushfiqur Rahim: Rasi56 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mehedi Hasan: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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