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South Africa tour of Bangladesh · 2024/25 · Men
21 Oct 2024 · Test
Shere Bangla National Stadium, Mirpur · Venue photographRecorded result
South Africa more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Aiden Markrambowled · Hasan Mahmud1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Hasan Mahmud | 6 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 85.71 |
| Tony de Zorzicaught · Mahmudul Hasan Joy · Taijul Islam 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mahmudul Hasan Joy · b Taijul Islam | 30 | 72 | 4 | 0 | 41.67 |
| Tristan Stubbscaught · Shadman Islam · Taijul Islam 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shadman Islam · b Taijul Islam | 23 | 27 | 4 | 0 | 85.19 |
| David Bedinghamcaught · Litton Das · Taijul Islam 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Litton Das · b Taijul Islam | 11 | 25 | 0 | 0 |
| 44.00 |
 Ryan Rickeltoncaught · Litton Das · Taijul Islam4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Litton Das · b Taijul Islam | 27 | 49 | 4 | 0 | 55.10 |
|---|
| Matthew Breetzkebowled · Taijul Islam 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Taijul Islam | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Kyle Verreynnestumped · Litton Das · Mehedi Hasan 8 fours · 2 sixes | stumped · Litton Das · b Mehedi Hasan | 114 | 144 | 8 | 2 | 79.17 |
|---|
 Wiaan Muldercaught · Shadman Islam · Hasan Mahmud8 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shadman Islam · b Hasan Mahmud | 54 | 112 | 8 | 0 | 48.21 |
|---|
 Keshav Maharajbowled · Hasan Mahmud0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Hasan Mahmud | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Dane Piedtlbw · Mehedi Hasan 2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Mehedi Hasan | 32 | 87 | 2 | 0 | 36.78 |
|---|
 Kagiso Rabadanot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 7 · wides: 0 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hasan Mahmud2 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 19.0 | 2 | 66 | 3 | 3.47 | 0 | 1 |
 Mehedi Hasan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 15.4 | 0 | 63 | 2 | 4.02 | 0 | 0 |
 Taijul Islam3 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 36.0 | 3 | 122 | 5 | 3.39 | 0 | 0 |
 Nayeem Hasan1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 18.0 | 1 | 49 | 0 | 2.72 | 0 | 0 |
1-9 (Aiden Markram, 1.0) · 2-50 (Tristan Stubbs, 11.4) · 3-72 (David Bedingham, 19.3) · 4-99 (Tony de Zorzi, 27.2) · 5-99 (Matthew Breetzke, 28.0) · 6-108 (Ryan Rickelton, 31.3) · 7-227 (Wiaan Mulder, 64.5) · 8-227 (Keshav Maharaj, 65.0) · 9-293 (Dane Piedt, 86.4) · 10-308 (Kyle Verreynne, 88.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 9/1 |
| 2 | 1 | 10/1 |
| 3 | 4 | 14/1 |
| 4 | 7 | 21/1 |
| 5 | 1 | 22/1 |
| 6 | 2 | 24/1 |
| 7 | 1 | 25/1 |
| 8 | 5 | 30/1 |
| 9 | 5 | 35/1 |
| 10 | 6 | 41/1 |
| 11 | 1 | 42/1 |
| 12 | 9 | 51/2 |
| 13 | 3 | 54/2 |
| 14 | 1 | 55/2 |
| 15 | 7 | 62/2 |
| 16 | 3 | 65/2 |
| 17 | 1 | 66/2 |
| 18 | 2 | 68/2 |
| 19 | 4 | 72/2 |
| 20 | 1 | 73/3 |
| 21 | 1 | 74/3 |
| 22 | 6 | 80/3 |
| 23 | 9 | 89/3 |
| 24 | 2 | 91/3 |
| 25 | 4 | 95/3 |
| 26 | 1 | 96/3 |
| 27 | 3 | 99/3 |
| 28 | 0 | 99/5 |
| 29 | 2 | 101/5 |
| 30 | 5 | 106/5 |
| 31 | 2 | 108/5 |
| 32 | 0 | 108/6 |
| 33 | 3 | 111/6 |
| 34 | 7 | 118/6 |
| 35 | 3 | 121/6 |
| 36 | 10 | 131/6 |
| 37 | 4 | 135/6 |
| 38 | 1 | 136/6 |
| 39 | 2 | 138/6 |
| 40 | 1 | 139/6 |
| 41 | 1 | 140/6 |
| 42 | 0 | 140/6 |
| 43 | 3 | 143/6 |
| 44 | 1 | 144/6 |
| 45 | 9 | 153/6 |
| 46 | 1 | 154/6 |
| 47 | 5 | 159/6 |
| 48 | 2 | 161/6 |
| 49 | 0 | 161/6 |
| 50 | 7 | 168/6 |
| 51 | 5 | 173/6 |
| 52 | 9 | 182/6 |
| 53 | 3 | 185/6 |
| 54 | 4 | 189/6 |
| 55 | 3 | 192/6 |
| 56 | 7 | 199/6 |
| 57 | 2 | 201/6 |
| 58 | 2 | 203/6 |
| 59 | 6 | 209/6 |
| 60 | 1 | 210/6 |
| 61 | 5 | 215/6 |
| 62 | 2 | 217/6 |
| 63 | 3 | 220/6 |
| 64 | 4 | 224/6 |
| 65 | 3 | 227/8 |
| 66 | 8 | 235/8 |
| 67 | 1 | 236/8 |
| 68 | 3 | 239/8 |
| 69 | 0 | 239/8 |
| 70 | 3 | 242/8 |
| 71 | 1 | 243/8 |
| 72 | 5 | 248/8 |
| 73 | 2 | 250/8 |
| 74 | 2 | 252/8 |
| 75 | 6 | 258/8 |
| 76 | 2 | 260/8 |
| 77 | 1 | 261/8 |
| 78 | 4 | 265/8 |
| 79 | 2 | 267/8 |
| 80 | 3 | 270/8 |
| 81 | 3 | 273/8 |
| 82 | 6 | 279/8 |
| 83 | 4 | 283/8 |
| 84 | 3 | 286/8 |
| 85 | 2 | 288/8 |
| 86 | 4 | 292/8 |
| 87 | 2 | 294/9 |
| 88 | 8 | 302/9 |
| 89 | 6 | 308/10 |
Ryan Rickelton: Dave Morton · Public domain
Wiaan Mulder: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Aiden Markram: Marcel Sigg · CC0
Jaker Ali: Press Information Department · Public domain
Hasan Mahmud: Press Information Department · Public domain
Keshav Maharaj: Dave Morton · Public domain
Mahmudul Hasan Joy: Press Information Department · Public domain
Mominul Haque: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Taijul Islam: Press Information Department · Public domain
Kagiso Rabada: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Litton Das: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Najmul Hossain Shanto: Rocky Masum · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nayeem Hasan: IqbalHossain · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mushfiqur Rahim: Rasi56 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mehedi Hasan: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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