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South Africa tour of Pakistan · 2025/26 · Men
4 Nov 2025 · ODI
Iqbal Stadium, Faisalabad · Venue photographRecorded result
Pakistan more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
South Africa started on 39%; South Africa batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Fakhar Zamancaught · Bjorn Fortuin · Donavon Ferreira4 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Bjorn Fortuin · b Donavon Ferreira | 45 | 57 | 4 | 2 | 78.95 |
| Saim Ayublbw · Donavon Ferreira 4 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Donavon Ferreira | 39 | 42 | 4 | 1 | 92.86 |
 Mohammad Babar Azamlbw · Bjorn Fortuin1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Bjorn Fortuin | 7 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 58.33 |
 Mohammad Rizwancaught · LG Pretorius · Corbin Bosch6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · LG Pretorius · b Corbin Bosch | 55 | 74 |
South Africa's chances ranged from 1% to 73% during the match (Pakistan: 27% to 99%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 6 |
| 0 |
| 74.32 |
| Salman Ali Aghacaught · Donavon Ferreira · Lungi Ngidi 5 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Donavon Ferreira · b Lungi Ngidi | 62 | 71 | 5 | 1 | 87.32 |
|---|
| Hussain Talatcaught · George Linde · Lungi Ngidi 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · George Linde · b Lungi Ngidi | 22 | 25 | 2 | 0 | 88.00 |
|---|
| Hassan Nawazstumped · Quinton de Kock · George Linde 0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Quinton de Kock · b George Linde | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Mohammad Nawazcaught · Bjorn Fortuin · Corbin Bosch 0 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Bjorn Fortuin · b Corbin Bosch | 9 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 100.00 |
|---|
 Shaheen Afridinot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
 Naseem Shahnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 10 · wides: 10 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lungi Ngidi0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 46 | 2 | 5.11 | 6 | 0 |
| Lizaad Williams0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 36 | 0 | 5.14 | 1 | 0 |
| Donavon Ferreira0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 53 | 2 | 5.89 | 0 | 0 |
| Corbin Bosch0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.4 | 0 | 32 | 2 | 4.80 | 2 | 0 |
| George Linde0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 49 | 1 | 6.13 | 1 | 0 |
| Bjorn Fortuin0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 38 | 1 | 3.80 | 0 | 0 |
1-87 (Saim Ayub, 15.2) · 2-102 (Fakhar Zaman, 17.3) · 3-105 (Mohammad Babar Azam, 19.5) · 4-196 (Mohammad Rizwan, 38.2) · 5-241 (Hussain Talat, 45.5) · 6-244 (Hassan Nawaz, 46.5) · 7-252 (Salman Ali Agha, 48.0) · 8-263 (Mohammad Nawaz, 49.3)
Recorded target: 264 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 8 | 10/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 11/0 |
| 4 | 1 | 12/0 |
| 5 | 17 | 29/0 |
| 6 | 1 | 30/0 |
| 7 | 4 | 34/0 |
| 8 | 6 | 40/0 |
| 9 | 5 | 45/0 |
| 10 | 8 | 53/0 |
| 11 | 4 | 57/0 |
| 12 | 10 | 67/0 |
| 13 | 9 | 76/0 |
| 14 | 3 | 79/0 |
| 15 | 7 | 86/0 |
| 16 | 7 | 93/1 |
| 17 | 9 | 102/1 |
| 18 | 1 | 103/2 |
| 19 | 1 | 104/2 |
| 20 | 2 | 106/3 |
| 21 | 6 | 112/3 |
| 22 | 1 | 113/3 |
| 23 | 7 | 120/3 |
| 24 | 3 | 123/3 |
| 25 | 6 | 129/3 |
| 26 | 2 | 131/3 |
| 27 | 6 | 137/3 |
| 28 | 7 | 144/3 |
| 29 | 8 | 152/3 |
| 30 | 7 | 159/3 |
| 31 | 3 | 162/3 |
| 32 | 2 | 164/3 |
| 33 | 5 | 169/3 |
| 34 | 6 | 175/3 |
| 35 | 6 | 181/3 |
| 36 | 3 | 184/3 |
| 37 | 7 | 191/3 |
| 38 | 4 | 195/3 |
| 39 | 5 | 200/4 |
| 40 | 6 | 206/4 |
| 41 | 4 | 210/4 |
| 42 | 7 | 217/4 |
| 43 | 6 | 223/4 |
| 44 | 9 | 232/4 |
| 45 | 3 | 235/4 |
| 46 | 6 | 241/5 |
| 47 | 4 | 245/6 |
| 48 | 7 | 252/7 |
| 49 | 8 | 260/7 |
| 50 | 4 | 264/8 |
Shaheen Afridi: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Babar Azam: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Rizwan: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Quinton de Kock: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Lungi Ngidi: Starc99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Naseem Shah: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Fakhar Zaman: Pakistan Cricket Board · CC BY 3.0
Abrar Ahmed: Nazly Ahmed · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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