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South Africa tour of Pakistan · 2025/26 · Men
4 Nov 2025 · ODI
Iqbal Stadium, Faisalabad · Venue photographRecorded result
Pakistan more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
South Africa started on 39%; South Africa batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LG Pretoriuscaught · Mohammad Nawaz · Saim Ayub 7 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Mohammad Nawaz · b Saim Ayub | 57 | 60 | 7 | 1 | 95.00 |
 Quinton de Kockbowled · Naseem Shah6 fours · 2 sixes | bowled · b Naseem Shah | 63 | 71 | 6 | 2 | 88.73 |
| Tony de Zorzicaught and bowled · Saim Ayub 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught and bowled · b Saim Ayub | 18 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 90.00 |
| Matthew Breetzkecaught · Mohammad Nawaz · Abrar Ahmed 2 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Mohammad Nawaz · b Abrar Ahmed | 42 | 54 | 2 | 2 | 77.78 |
| Sinethemba Qeshilecaught · Fakhar Zaman · Mohammad Nawaz 3 fours · 0 sixes |
South Africa's chances ranged from 1% to 73% during the match (Pakistan: 27% to 99%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Fakhar Zaman · b Mohammad Nawaz |
| 22 |
| 23 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 95.65 |
| Donavon Ferreiracaught · Mohammad Babar Azam · Abrar Ahmed 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mohammad Babar Azam · b Abrar Ahmed | 3 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 27.27 |
|---|
| George Lindecaught · Mohammad Rizwan · Naseem Shah 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Mohammad Rizwan · b Naseem Shah | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 22.22 |
|---|
| Corbin Boschbowled · Shaheen Afridi 6 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Shaheen Afridi | 41 | 40 | 6 | 0 | 102.50 |
|---|
| Bjorn Fortuinlbw · Abrar Ahmed 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Abrar Ahmed | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Lungi Ngidinot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Lizaad Williamsbowled · Naseem Shah 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Naseem Shah | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 11 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Shaheen Afridi0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 55 | 1 | 5.50 | 4 | 0 |
 Naseem Shah1 maidens · 0 wides · 2 no-balls | 9.1 | 1 | 40 | 3 | 4.36 | 0 | 2 |
| Salman Ali Agha0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 10.00 | 5 | 0 |
 Abrar Ahmed1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 53 | 3 | 5.89 | 0 | 0 |
| Saim Ayub0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 39 | 2 | 4.88 | 2 | 0 |
| Mohammad Nawaz0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 45 | 1 | 4.50 | 0 | 0 |
1-98 (LG Pretorius, 16.0) · 2-141 (Quinton de Kock, 24.4) · 3-147 (Tony de Zorzi, 25.4) · 4-191 (Sinethemba Qeshile, 33.1) · 5-202 (Donavon Ferreira, 36.2) · 6-209 (George Linde, 39.0) · 7-228 (Matthew Breetzke, 43.1) · 8-228 (Bjorn Fortuin, 43.2) · 9-262 (Corbin Bosch, 48.4) · 10-263 (Lizaad Williams, 49.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 9 | 12/0 |
| 3 | 5 | 17/0 |
| 4 | 1 | 18/0 |
| 5 | 5 | 23/0 |
| 6 | 9 | 32/0 |
| 7 | 4 | 36/0 |
| 8 | 7 | 43/0 |
| 9 | 8 | 51/0 |
| 10 | 11 | 62/0 |
| 11 | 4 | 66/0 |
| 12 | 12 | 78/0 |
| 13 | 10 | 88/0 |
| 14 | 4 | 92/0 |
| 15 | 2 | 94/0 |
| 16 | 4 | 98/1 |
| 17 | 3 | 101/1 |
| 18 | 6 | 107/1 |
| 19 | 11 | 118/1 |
| 20 | 7 | 125/1 |
| 21 | 7 | 132/1 |
| 22 | 6 | 138/1 |
| 23 | 1 | 139/1 |
| 24 | 2 | 141/1 |
| 25 | 1 | 142/2 |
| 26 | 6 | 148/3 |
| 27 | 5 | 153/3 |
| 28 | 4 | 157/3 |
| 29 | 7 | 164/3 |
| 30 | 3 | 167/3 |
| 31 | 9 | 176/3 |
| 32 | 3 | 179/3 |
| 33 | 12 | 191/3 |
| 34 | 2 | 193/4 |
| 35 | 6 | 199/4 |
| 36 | 3 | 202/4 |
| 37 | 2 | 204/5 |
| 38 | 1 | 205/5 |
| 39 | 4 | 209/6 |
| 40 | 2 | 211/6 |
| 41 | 4 | 215/6 |
| 42 | 10 | 225/6 |
| 43 | 3 | 228/6 |
| 44 | 0 | 228/8 |
| 45 | 12 | 240/8 |
| 46 | 9 | 249/8 |
| 47 | 1 | 250/8 |
| 48 | 7 | 257/8 |
| 49 | 6 | 263/9 |
| 50 | 0 | 263/10 |
Shaheen Afridi: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Babar Azam: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Mohammad Rizwan: ICNA · CC BY 3.0
Quinton de Kock: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Lungi Ngidi: Starc99 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Naseem Shah: BBC Urdu · CC BY 3.0
Fakhar Zaman: Pakistan Cricket Board · CC BY 3.0
Abrar Ahmed: Nazly Ahmed · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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