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Bangladesh tour of India · 2024/25 · Men
9 Oct 2024 · T20
Arun Jaitley Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
India more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
India started on 90%; India batted first.
India's chances ranged from 77% to 100% during the match (Bangladesh: 0% to 23%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parvez Hossain Emonbowled · Arshdeep Singh 3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Arshdeep Singh | 16 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 133.33 |
 Litton Dasbowled · Varun Chakravarthy0 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Varun Chakravarthy | 14 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 127.27 |
 Najmul Hossain Shantocaught · Hardik Pandya · Washington Sundar2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Hardik Pandya · b Washington Sundar | 11 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 157.14 |
 Tawhid Hridoybowled · Abhishek Sharma0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Abhishek Sharma | 2 |
| 6 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 33.33 |
 Mehedi Hasancaught · Ravi Bishnoi · Riyan Parag1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ravi Bishnoi · b Riyan Parag | 16 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
 Mahmudullahcaught · Riyan Parag · Nitish Kumar Reddy0 fours · 3 sixes | caught · Riyan Parag · b Nitish Kumar Reddy | 41 | 39 | 0 | 3 | 105.13 |
|---|
 Jaker Alicaught · Washington Sundar · Mayank Yadav0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Washington Sundar · b Mayank Yadav | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
 Rishad Hossaincaught · Hardik Pandya · Varun Chakravarthy2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Hardik Pandya · b Varun Chakravarthy | 9 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 90.00 |
|---|
 Tanzim Hasan Sakibcaught · Hardik Pandya · Nitish Kumar Reddy1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Hardik Pandya · b Nitish Kumar Reddy | 8 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 80.00 |
|---|
 Taskin Ahmednot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 5* | 7 | 0 | 0 | 71.43 |
|---|
 Mustafizur Rahmannot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 2 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Arshdeep Singh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 26 | 1 | 8.67 | 0 | 0 |
 Nitish Kumar Reddy0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 2 | 5.75 | 0 | 0 |
 Washington Sundar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Varun Chakravarthy0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 19 | 2 | 4.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Abhishek Sharma0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Mayank Yadav0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 7.50 | 2 | 1 |
| Riyan Parag0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 8.00 | 0 | 1 |
1-20 (Parvez Hossain Emon, 2.3) · 2-40 (Najmul Hossain Shanto, 4.3) · 3-42 (Litton Das, 5.1) · 4-46 (Tawhid Hridoy, 6.5) · 5-80 (Mehedi Hasan, 11.0) · 6-83 (Jaker Ali, 11.4) · 7-93 (Rishad Hossain, 13.3) · 8-120 (Tanzim Hasan Sakib, 17.4) · 9-127 (Mahmudullah, 19.1)
Recorded target: 222 runs in 20 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | 14/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 20/0 |
| 3 | 9 | 29/1 |
| 4 | 9 | 38/1 |
| 5 | 4 | 42/2 |
| 6 | 1 | 43/3 |
| 7 | 3 | 46/4 |
| 8 | 8 | 54/4 |
| 9 | 7 | 61/4 |
| 10 | 9 | 70/4 |
| 11 | 10 | 80/5 |
| 12 | 7 | 87/6 |
| 13 | 6 | 93/6 |
| 14 | 2 | 95/7 |
| 15 | 7 | 102/7 |
| 16 | 8 | 110/7 |
| 17 | 7 | 117/7 |
| 18 | 5 | 122/8 |
| 19 | 5 | 127/8 |
| 20 | 8 | 135/9 |
Sanju Samson: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Tawhid Hridoy: Niriho khoka · CC BY 4.0
Rishad Hossain: Press Information Department · Public domain
Hardik Pandya: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Washington Sundar: Dee03 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tanzim Hasan Sakib: Cricket Today · CC BY 3.0
Mahmudullah: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nitish Kumar Reddy: WikiWanderer261 · CC0
Suryakumar Yadav: Kolkata Knight Riders - Official · CC BY 3.0
Jaker Ali: Press Information Department · Public domain
Taskin Ahmed: Mahbub Ali Zaki · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mustafizur Rahman: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Litton Das: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Arshdeep Singh: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Najmul Hossain Shanto: Rocky Masum · CC BY-SA 4.0
Mehedi Hasan: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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