IndiaversusBangladesh

9 Oct 2024 · T20

Arun Jaitley Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

India won by 86 runs

India20.0 overs221/9 Bangladesh20.0 overs135/9 Arun Jaitley Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

91%India9%Bangladesh

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than Bangladesh (1,816 vs 1,567 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 9 and Bangladesh won 1
India are playing at home in India

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

India started on 90%; India batted first.

India’s chance of winning (%) · Bangladesh is the rest

India's chances ranged from 77% to 100% during the match (Bangladesh: 0% to 23%).

Biggest swings

1.6: Taskin Ahmed to SV Samson, SV Samson out. Bangladesh up from 7% to 12%.
2.6: Tanzim Hasan Sakib to Abhishek Sharma, Abhishek Sharma out. Bangladesh up from 11% to 17%.
5.3: Mustafizur Rahman to SA Yadav, SA Yadav out. Bangladesh up from 15% to 22%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

India221/9 Bangladesh135/9

Innings 1

India

221/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

India batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Sanju Samsoncaught · Najmul Hossain Shanto · Taskin Ahmed 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Najmul Hossain Shanto · b Taskin Ahmed	10	7	2	0	142.86
Abhishek Sharmabowled · Tanzim Hasan Sakib 3 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Tanzim Hasan Sakib	15	11	3	0	136.36
Suryakumar Yadavcaught · Najmul Hossain Shanto · Mustafizur Rahman 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Najmul Hossain Shanto · b Mustafizur Rahman	8	10	1	0	80.00
Nitish Kumar Reddycaught · Mehedi Hasan · Mustafizur Rahman 4 fours · 7 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Mehedi Hasan0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	46	0	15.33	1	0
Taskin Ahmed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	16	2	4.00	0	0
Tanzim Hasan Sakib0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	50	2	12.50	0	0
Mustafizur Rahman0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	36	2	9.00	0	0
Rishad Hossain0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	55	3	13.75	1	0
Mahmudullah0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls	1.0	15	0	15.00	1	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	15	15/0
2	2	17/1
3	8	25/2
4	4	29/2
5	7	36/2
6	9	45/3
7	6	51/3
8	11	62/3
9	15	77/3
10	24	101/3
11	13	114/3
12	8	122/3
13	26	148/3
14	4	152/4
15	13	165/4
16	17	182/4
17	3	185/5
18	10	195/5
19	18	213/6
20	8	221/9

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