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Sri Lanka Women tour of Bangladesh · 2026 · Women
25 Apr 2026 · ODI
Recorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Bangladesh started on 50%; Bangladesh batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hasini Pereracaught · Rabeya Khan · Sobhana Mostary13 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Rabeya Khan · b Sobhana Mostary | 95 | 131 | 13 | 0 | 72.52 |
 Chamari Atapattucaught · Nigar Sultana · Marufa Akter2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nigar Sultana · b Marufa Akter | 10 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 66.67 |
| Imesha Dulanicaught and bowled · Marufa Akter 7 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Marufa Akter | 56 | 79 | 7 | 0 | 70.89 |
 Harshitha Madavinot out8 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 44* | 51 |
Bangladesh's chances ranged from 0% to 61% during the match (Sri Lanka: 40% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 8 |
| 0 |
| 86.27 |
| Hansima Karunaratnenot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 3 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Marufa Akter0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 49 | 2 | 4.90 | 3 | 0 |
| Sultana Khatun2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 31 | 0 | 3.10 | 0 | 0 |
 Nahida Akter0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 28 | 0 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Ritu Moni0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Fahima Khatun0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 36 | 0 | 5.14 | 0 | 0 |
| Shorna Akter0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.3 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 5.56 | 0 | 1 |
| Sobhana Mostary0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-19 (Chamari Atapattu, 4.4) · 2-127 (Imesha Dulani, 31.5) · 3-205 (Hasini Perera, 45.2)
Recorded target: 214 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 9/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 13/0 |
| 4 | 0 | 13/0 |
| 5 | 6 | 19/1 |
| 6 | 4 | 23/1 |
| 7 | 6 | 29/1 |
| 8 | 4 | 33/1 |
| 9 | 2 | 35/1 |
| 10 | 1 | 36/1 |
| 11 | 8 | 44/1 |
| 12 | 0 | 44/1 |
| 13 | 4 | 48/1 |
| 14 | 2 | 50/1 |
| 15 | 5 | 55/1 |
| 16 | 3 | 58/1 |
| 17 | 6 | 64/1 |
| 18 | 1 | 65/1 |
| 19 | 1 | 66/1 |
| 20 | 5 | 71/1 |
| 21 | 4 | 75/1 |
| 22 | 3 | 78/1 |
| 23 | 1 | 79/1 |
| 24 | 6 | 85/1 |
| 25 | 3 | 88/1 |
| 26 | 8 | 96/1 |
| 27 | 7 | 103/1 |
| 28 | 5 | 108/1 |
| 29 | 9 | 117/1 |
| 30 | 2 | 119/1 |
| 31 | 5 | 124/1 |
| 32 | 3 | 127/2 |
| 33 | 5 | 132/2 |
| 34 | 5 | 137/2 |
| 35 | 5 | 142/2 |
| 36 | 10 | 152/2 |
| 37 | 6 | 158/2 |
| 38 | 2 | 160/2 |
| 39 | 4 | 164/2 |
| 40 | 3 | 167/2 |
| 41 | 13 | 180/2 |
| 42 | 3 | 183/2 |
| 43 | 10 | 193/2 |
| 44 | 11 | 204/2 |
| 45 | 1 | 205/2 |
| 46 | 2 | 207/3 |
| 47 | 7 | 214/3 |
Chamari Atapattu: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sharmin Akhter: Digimarka · CC BY-SA 4.0
Fahima Khatun: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nilakshi de Silva: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nigar Sultana: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nahida Akter: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Hasini Perera: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marufa Akter: Press Information Department · Public domain
Harshitha Madavi: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kavisha Dilhari: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Fargana Hoque: Digimarka · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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