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Sri Lanka Women tour of Bangladesh · 2026 · Women
25 Apr 2026 · ODI
Recorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Bangladesh started on 50%; Bangladesh batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Fargana Hoquebowled · Chamari Atapattu1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Chamari Atapattu | 11 | 26 | 1 | 0 | 42.31 |
| Sharmin Sultanarun out · Imesha Dulani, Kaushini Nuthyangana · NM Meepage 3 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Imesha Dulani, Kaushini Nuthyangana | 17 | 29 | 3 | 0 | 58.62 |
 Sharmin Akhterbowled · NM Meepage3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b NM Meepage | 25 | 36 | 3 | 0 | 69.44 |
 Nigar Sultanacaught · Hansima Karunaratne · Kavisha Dilhari1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Hansima Karunaratne · b Kavisha Dilhari |
Bangladesh's chances ranged from 0% to 61% during the match (Sri Lanka: 40% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 40 |
| 90 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 44.44 |
| Sobhana Mostarycaught · Harshitha Madavi · Malki Madara 8 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Harshitha Madavi · b Malki Madara | 74 | 80 | 8 | 0 | 92.50 |
|---|
| Shorna Aktercaught · Hansima Karunaratne · NM Meepage 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Hansima Karunaratne · b NM Meepage | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
 Fahima Khatunbowled · Kavisha Dilhari0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Kavisha Dilhari | 7 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 70.00 |
|---|
| Ritu Monicaught · Nilakshi de Silva · Kavisha Dilhari 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nilakshi de Silva · b Kavisha Dilhari | 20 | 16 | 3 | 0 | 125.00 |
|---|
 Nahida Akternot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 6* | 10 | 0 | 0 | 60.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 10 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malki Madara1 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 48 | 1 | 5.33 | 5 | 0 |
| NM Meepage1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 40 | 2 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Chamari Atapattu0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 35 | 1 | 3.89 | 3 | 0 |
| Inoka Ranaweera1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 32 | 0 | 3.20 | 1 | 0 |
 Kavisha Dilhari0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 48 | 3 | 4.80 | 1 | 0 |
 Nilakshi de Silva0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 5.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-28 (Fargana Hoque, 8.3) · 2-34 (Sharmin Sultana, 9.4) · 3-69 (Sharmin Akhter, 21.1) · 4-134 (Nigar Sultana, 38.3) · 5-143 (Shorna Akter, 39.3) · 6-159 (Fahima Khatun, 42.1) · 7-189 (Ritu Moni, 46.2) · 8-213 (Sobhana Mostary, 50.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 5/0 |
| 3 | 0 | 5/0 |
| 4 | 2 | 7/0 |
| 5 | 6 | 13/0 |
| 6 | 9 | 22/0 |
| 7 | 6 | 28/0 |
| 8 | 0 | 28/0 |
| 9 | 4 | 32/1 |
| 10 | 2 | 34/2 |
| 11 | 7 | 41/2 |
| 12 | 1 | 42/2 |
| 13 | 1 | 43/2 |
| 14 | 0 | 43/2 |
| 15 | 2 | 45/2 |
| 16 | 3 | 48/2 |
| 17 | 5 | 53/2 |
| 18 | 4 | 57/2 |
| 19 | 3 | 60/2 |
| 20 | 3 | 63/2 |
| 21 | 6 | 69/2 |
| 22 | 4 | 73/3 |
| 23 | 1 | 74/3 |
| 24 | 3 | 77/3 |
| 25 | 2 | 79/3 |
| 26 | 5 | 84/3 |
| 27 | 1 | 85/3 |
| 28 | 7 | 92/3 |
| 29 | 2 | 94/3 |
| 30 | 5 | 99/3 |
| 31 | 1 | 100/3 |
| 32 | 6 | 106/3 |
| 33 | 9 | 115/3 |
| 34 | 3 | 118/3 |
| 35 | 4 | 122/3 |
| 36 | 2 | 124/3 |
| 37 | 9 | 133/3 |
| 38 | 1 | 134/3 |
| 39 | 4 | 138/4 |
| 40 | 9 | 147/5 |
| 41 | 6 | 153/5 |
| 42 | 6 | 159/5 |
| 43 | 9 | 168/6 |
| 44 | 4 | 172/6 |
| 45 | 11 | 183/6 |
| 46 | 4 | 187/6 |
| 47 | 5 | 192/7 |
| 48 | 4 | 196/7 |
| 49 | 6 | 202/7 |
| 50 | 11 | 213/8 |
Chamari Atapattu: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sharmin Akhter: Digimarka · CC BY-SA 4.0
Fahima Khatun: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nilakshi de Silva: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nigar Sultana: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nahida Akter: Nurunnaby Chowdhury (Hasive) · CC BY-SA 4.0
Hasini Perera: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marufa Akter: Press Information Department · Public domain
Harshitha Madavi: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kavisha Dilhari: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Fargana Hoque: Digimarka · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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