NorthamptonshireversusWorcestershire

6 Jun 2025 · T20

New Road, Worcester · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Northamptonshire won by 31 runs

Northamptonshire20.0 overs190/5 Worcestershire19.0 overs159/10 New Road, Worcester ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Northamptonshire started on 53%; Northamptonshire batted first.

Northamptonshire’s chance of winning (%) · Worcestershire is the rest

Northamptonshire's chances ranged from 40% to 100% during the match (Worcestershire: 0% to 60%).

Biggest swings

0.4: JA Duffy to MP Breetzke, MP Breetzke out. Worcestershire up from 46% to 60%.
2nd inns 1.4: BW Sanderson to BL D'Oliveira, BL D'Oliveira out. Northamptonshire up from 64% to 74%.
2nd inns 3.2: BW Sanderson to Kashif Ali, Kashif Ali out. Northamptonshire up from 75% to 85%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Northamptonshire190/5 Worcestershire159/10

Innings 1