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Photo: NZDF
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England tour of New Zealand · 2025/26 · Men
26 Oct 2025 · ODI
Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
England started on 28%; England batted first.
England's chances ranged from 0% to 50% during the match (New Zealand: 50% to 100%).
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Will Youngbowled · Brydon Carse1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Brydon Carse | 5 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 71.43 |
 Rachin Ravindracaught · Jamie Overton · Luke Wood3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jamie Overton · b Luke Wood | 17 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 100.00 |
 Kane Williamsoncaught · Jos Buttler · Brydon Carse0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jos Buttler · b Brydon Carse | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Daryl Mitchellnot out 7 fours · 2 sixes | not out | 78* | 91 | 7 | 2 | 85.71 |
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
 Tom Lathamlbw · Brydon Carse3 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Brydon Carse | 24 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Michael Bracewellrun out · Jamie Overton · Sam Curran 6 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Jamie Overton | 51 | 51 | 6 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Mitchell Santnercaught · Jamie Overton · Adil Rashid 1 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Jamie Overton · b Adil Rashid | 27 | 25 | 1 | 2 | 108.00 |
|---|
| Nathan Smithnot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 5* | 7 | 1 | 0 | 71.43 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 12 · noballs: 3 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Luke Wood0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 54 | 1 | 6.75 | 2 | 0 |
 Brydon Carse0 maidens · 6 wides · 3 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 45 | 3 | 4.50 | 6 | 3 |
 Adil Rashid0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.4 | 0 | 69 | 1 | 7.96 | 1 | 0 |
 Jamie Overton0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 30 | 0 | 5.00 | 1 | 0 |
 Sam Curran0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 6.00 | 2 | 0 |
1-12 (Will Young, 1.5) · 2-12 (Kane Williamson, 2.0) · 3-24 (Rachin Ravindra, 4.2) · 4-66 (Tom Latham, 11.2) · 5-158 (Michael Bracewell, 26.4) · 6-207 (Mitchell Santner, 34.4)
Recorded target: 224 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 12/2 |
| 3 | 7 | 19/2 |
| 4 | 4 | 23/2 |
| 5 | 5 | 28/3 |
| 6 | 3 | 31/3 |
| 7 | 9 | 40/3 |
| 8 | 6 | 46/3 |
| 9 | 7 | 53/3 |
| 10 | 6 | 59/3 |
| 11 | 6 | 65/3 |
| 12 | 4 | 69/4 |
| 13 | 2 | 71/4 |
| 14 | 4 | 75/4 |
| 15 | 11 | 86/4 |
| 16 | 6 | 92/4 |
| 17 | 9 | 101/4 |
| 18 | 3 | 104/4 |
| 19 | 3 | 107/4 |
| 20 | 7 | 114/4 |
| 21 | 7 | 121/4 |
| 22 | 6 | 127/4 |
| 23 | 3 | 130/4 |
| 24 | 4 | 134/4 |
| 25 | 8 | 142/4 |
| 26 | 9 | 151/4 |
| 27 | 7 | 158/5 |
| 28 | 2 | 160/5 |
| 29 | 8 | 168/5 |
| 30 | 9 | 177/5 |
| 31 | 2 | 179/5 |
| 32 | 2 | 181/5 |
| 33 | 10 | 191/5 |
| 34 | 4 | 195/5 |
| 35 | 13 | 208/6 |
| 36 | 4 | 212/6 |
| 37 | 12 | 224/6 |
Luke Wood: Dave Morton · Public domain
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Brydon Carse: Dave Morton · Public domain
Matt Henry: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jos Buttler: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jamie Overton: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Jamie Smith: Dave Morton · Public domain
Sam Curran: Number 10 · CC BY 2.0
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jacob Duffy: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Young: Dave Morton · Public domain
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Adil Rashid: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Kane Williamson: Mark Lockett · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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