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England tour of New Zealand · 2025/26 · Men
26 Oct 2025 · ODI
Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
England started on 28%; England batted first.
England's chances ranged from 0% to 50% during the match (New Zealand: 50% to 100%).
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jamie Smithbowled · Matt Henry0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Matt Henry | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
 Ben Duckettcaught · Tom Latham · Zakary Foulkes0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Latham · b Zakary Foulkes | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
 Joe Rootbowled · Zakary Foulkes0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Zakary Foulkes | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
| Jacob Bethellbowled · Zakary Foulkes 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Zakary Foulkes | 2 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 16.67 |
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
 Harry Brookcaught · Nathan Smith · Mitchell Santner9 fours · 11 sixes |
|---|
| caught · Nathan Smith · b Mitchell Santner |
| 135 |
| 101 |
| 9 |
| 11 |
| 133.66 |
 Jos Buttlercaught · Tom Latham · Matt Henry1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Latham · b Matt Henry | 4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
 Sam Currancaught · Tom Latham · Zakary Foulkes1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tom Latham · b Zakary Foulkes | 6 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 60.00 |
|---|
 Jamie Overtoncaught · Daryl Mitchell · Jacob Duffy6 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Daryl Mitchell · b Jacob Duffy | 46 | 54 | 6 | 1 | 85.19 |
|---|
 Brydon Carsecaught · Kane Williamson · Jacob Duffy0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Kane Williamson · b Jacob Duffy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Adil Rashidcaught · Michael Bracewell · Jacob Duffy0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Michael Bracewell · b Jacob Duffy | 4 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
 Luke Woodnot out1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 5* | 4 | 1 | 0 | 125.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 13 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Matt Henry2 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 2 | 53 | 2 | 5.89 | 3 | 0 |
| Zakary Foulkes1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 1 | 41 | 4 | 5.86 | 3 | 0 |
| Nathan Smith0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 49 | 0 | 8.17 | 1 | 0 |
 Jacob Duffy0 maidens · 6 wides · 1 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 55 | 3 | 9.17 | 6 | 1 |
| Mitchell Santner0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.2 | 0 | 22 | 1 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-0 (Jamie Smith, 0.1) · 2-4 (Ben Duckett, 1.3) · 3-5 (Joe Root, 2.0) · 4-10 (Jacob Bethell, 5.1) · 5-33 (Jos Buttler, 8.3) · 6-56 (Sam Curran, 11.3) · 7-143 (Jamie Overton, 25.5) · 8-143 (Brydon Carse, 26.0) · 9-166 (Adil Rashid, 30.0) · 10-223 (Harry Brook, 35.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/1 |
| 2 | 3 | 5/3 |
| 3 | 0 | 5/3 |
| 4 | 0 | 5/3 |
| 5 | 5 | 10/3 |
| 6 | 4 | 14/4 |
| 7 | 9 | 23/4 |
| 8 | 10 | 33/4 |
| 9 | 0 | 33/5 |
| 10 | 12 | 45/5 |
| 11 | 6 | 51/5 |
| 12 | 7 | 58/6 |
| 13 | 7 | 65/6 |
| 14 | 5 | 70/6 |
| 15 | 6 | 76/6 |
| 16 | 11 | 87/6 |
| 17 | 13 | 100/6 |
| 18 | 6 | 106/6 |
| 19 | 4 | 110/6 |
| 20 | 1 | 111/6 |
| 21 | 3 | 114/6 |
| 22 | 9 | 123/6 |
| 23 | 4 | 127/6 |
| 24 | 8 | 135/6 |
| 25 | 5 | 140/6 |
| 26 | 3 | 143/8 |
| 27 | 3 | 146/8 |
| 28 | 15 | 161/8 |
| 29 | 3 | 164/8 |
| 30 | 2 | 166/9 |
| 31 | 1 | 167/9 |
| 32 | 20 | 187/9 |
| 33 | 3 | 190/9 |
| 34 | 19 | 209/9 |
| 35 | 14 | 223/9 |
| 36 | 0 | 223/10 |
Luke Wood: Dave Morton · Public domain
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Brydon Carse: Dave Morton · Public domain
Matt Henry: Blue Square Thing · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jos Buttler: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jamie Overton: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Jamie Smith: Dave Morton · Public domain
Sam Curran: Number 10 · CC BY 2.0
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jacob Duffy: Dave Morton · Public domain
Will Young: Dave Morton · Public domain
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Adil Rashid: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Kane Williamson: Mark Lockett · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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