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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier · 2024 · Men
10 Jul 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Jersey more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Jersey started on 62%; Jersey batted first.
Jersey's chances ranged from 51% to 100% during the match (Belgium: 0% to 49%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harrison Carlyonlbw · Muhammad Fahim 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Muhammad Fahim | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 75.00 |
| Nick Greenwoodcaught · Sheraz Sheikh · Khalid Ahmadi 4 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Sheraz Sheikh · b Khalid Ahmadi | 36 | 26 | 4 | 1 | 138.46 |
| Asa Tribecaught · Shaheryar Butt · D Dewald 3 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Shaheryar Butt · b D Dewald | 33 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 157.14 |
| Jonty Jennerbowled · Khalid Ahmadi 0 fours · 4 sixes | bowled · b Khalid Ahmadi | 31 | 13 | 0 | 4 | 238.46 |
| Zak Tribecaught · Shaheryar Butt · Aziz Mohammad 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shaheryar Butt · b Aziz Mohammad | 9 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 90.00 |
| not out |
| 40* |
| 22 |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 181.82 |
| Benjamin Wardcaught · B Niaz · Khalid Ahmadi 0 fours · 2 sixes | caught · B Niaz · b Khalid Ahmadi | 19 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 158.33 |
|---|
| Julius Sumerauerrun out · A Raza, Sajad Ahmadzai · Muhammad Fahim 1 fours · 1 sixes | run out · A Raza, Sajad Ahmadzai | 23 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 191.67 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 4 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhammad Fahim0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 32 | 1 | 10.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Sajad Ahmadzai0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 8.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Khalid Ahmadi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 40 | 3 | 10.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Aziz Mohammad0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 45 | 1 | 11.25 | 1 | 0 |
| D Dewald0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 33 | 1 | 8.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Sheraz Sheikh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 16.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-4 (Harrison Carlyon, 0.5) · 2-66 (Nick Greenwood, 7.2) · 3-76 (Asa Tribe, 8.5) · 4-111 (Jonty Jenner, 11.4) · 5-126 (Zak Tribe, 13.3) · 6-149 (Benjamin Ward, 16.1) · 7-198 (Julius Sumerauer, 20.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/1 |
| 2 | 4 | 12/1 |
| 3 | 12 | 24/1 |
| 4 | 11 | 35/1 |
| 5 | 13 | 48/1 |
| 6 | 14 | 62/1 |
| 7 | 4 | 66/1 |
| 8 | 2 | 68/2 |
| 9 | 8 | 76/3 |
| 10 | 16 | 92/3 |
| 11 | 11 | 103/3 |
| 12 | 12 | 115/4 |
| 13 | 10 | 125/4 |
| 14 | 2 | 127/5 |
| 15 | 7 | 134/5 |
| 16 | 15 | 149/5 |
| 17 | 13 | 162/6 |
| 18 | 10 | 172/6 |
| 19 | 14 | 186/6 |
| 20 | 12 | 198/7 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.