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Photo: The original uploader was PaddyBriggs at English Wikipedia.
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Ireland Women tour of South Africa · 2025/26 · Women
5 Dec 2025 · T20
Newlands, Cape Town · Venue photographRecorded result
Ireland more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
South Africa started on 31%; South Africa batted first.
South Africa's chances ranged from 23% to 100% during the match (Ireland: 0% to 77%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
On 5 Dec 2025, South Africa played Ireland at Newlands, Cape Town. Recorded result: South Africa won by 105 runs.
Calculation date: 9 Nov 2026.