South AfricaversusIreland

5 Dec 2025 · T20

Newlands, Cape Town · Venue photograph

Recorded result

South Africa won by 105 runs

South Africa20.0 overs220/2 Ireland18.0 overs115/10 Newlands, Cape Town ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Ireland more likely to win

32%South Africa68%Ireland

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Ireland rate stronger than South Africa (1,752 vs 1,515 on our results rating)
In the last 6 T20 internationals between these sides, South Africa won 5 and Ireland won 1
South Africa are playing at home in South Africa

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

South Africa started on 31%; South Africa batted first.

South Africa’s chance of winning (%) · Ireland is the rest

South Africa's chances ranged from 23% to 100% during the match (Ireland: 0% to 77%).

Biggest swings

1.3: J Maguire to F Tunnicliffe, F Tunnicliffe out. Ireland up from 69% to 77%.
5.4: LA McBride to L Wolvaardt, six by L Wolvaardt. South Africa up from 48% to 53%.
7.6: LA McBride to L Wolvaardt, six by L Wolvaardt. South Africa up from 58% to 64%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.