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England tour of India · 2024/25 · Men
9 Feb 2025 · ODI
Barabati Stadium, Cuttack · Venue photographRecorded result
India more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
England started on 21%; England batted first.
Innings 2
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Rohit Sharmacaught · Adil Rashid · Liam Livingstone12 fours · 7 sixes | caught · Adil Rashid · b Liam Livingstone | 119 | 90 | 12 | 7 | 132.22 |
 Shubman Gillbowled · Jamie Overton9 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Jamie Overton | 60 | 52 | 9 | 1 | 115.38 |
 Virat Kohlicaught · Philip Salt · Adil Rashid1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Philip Salt · b Adil Rashid | 5 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 62.50 |
 Shreyas Iyerrun out · Jos Buttler, Adil Rashid · Adil Rashid3 fours · 1 sixes |
England's chances ranged from 0% to 53% during the match (India: 47% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| run out · Jos Buttler, Adil Rashid |
| 44 |
| 47 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 93.62 |
 Axar Patelnot out4 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 41* | 43 | 4 | 0 | 95.35 |
|---|
 KL Rahulcaught · Philip Salt · Jamie Overton1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Philip Salt · b Jamie Overton | 10 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 71.43 |
|---|
 Hardik Pandyacaught · Jamie Overton · Gus Atkinson2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jamie Overton · b Gus Atkinson | 10 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 166.67 |
|---|
 Ravindra Jadejanot out2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 11* | 7 | 2 | 0 | 157.14 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 7 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Saqib Mahmood0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 36 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Gus Atkinson0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 65 | 1 | 9.29 | 2 | 0 |
 Mark Wood0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 57 | 0 | 7.13 | 0 | 0 |
 Adil Rashid0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 78 | 1 | 7.80 | 1 | 0 |
 Jamie Overton0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 27 | 2 | 5.40 | 2 | 0 |
| Liam Livingstone0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 29 | 1 | 4.14 | 1 | 0 |
 Joe Root0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.3 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 10.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-136 (Shubman Gill, 16.4) · 2-150 (Virat Kohli, 19.3) · 3-220 (Rohit Sharma, 29.4) · 4-258 (Shreyas Iyer, 37.0) · 5-275 (KL Rahul, 40.4) · 6-286 (Hardik Pandya, 42.0)
Recorded target: 305 runs in 50 overs.
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 12 | 13/0 |
| 3 | 11 | 24/0 |
| 4 | 6 | 30/0 |
| 5 | 9 | 39/0 |
| 6 | 8 | 47/0 |
| 7 | 9 | 56/0 |
| 8 | 8 | 64/0 |
| 9 | 10 | 74/0 |
| 10 | 3 | 77/0 |
| 11 | 9 | 86/0 |
| 12 | 5 | 91/0 |
| 13 | 5 | 96/0 |
| 14 | 9 | 105/0 |
| 15 | 9 | 114/0 |
| 16 | 13 | 127/0 |
| 17 | 10 | 137/1 |
| 18 | 9 | 146/1 |
| 19 | 3 | 149/1 |
| 20 | 2 | 151/2 |
| 21 | 7 | 158/2 |
| 22 | 8 | 166/2 |
| 23 | 6 | 172/2 |
| 24 | 4 | 176/2 |
| 25 | 3 | 179/2 |
| 26 | 15 | 194/2 |
| 27 | 6 | 200/2 |
| 28 | 1 | 201/2 |
| 29 | 17 | 218/2 |
| 30 | 2 | 220/3 |
| 31 | 2 | 222/3 |
| 32 | 8 | 230/3 |
| 33 | 4 | 234/3 |
| 34 | 3 | 237/3 |
| 35 | 11 | 248/3 |
| 36 | 5 | 253/3 |
| 37 | 5 | 258/4 |
| 38 | 3 | 261/4 |
| 39 | 7 | 268/4 |
| 40 | 7 | 275/4 |
| 41 | 1 | 276/5 |
| 42 | 10 | 286/6 |
| 43 | 9 | 295/6 |
| 44 | 7 | 302/6 |
| 45 | 6 | 308/6 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Hardik Pandya: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Axar Patel: Anand Anil · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jos Buttler: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jamie Overton: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Mark Wood: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
KL Rahul: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Rohit Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ravindra Jadeja: SR Vlogs · CC BY 3.0
Philip Salt: Dave Morton · Public domain
Adil Rashid: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Saqib Mahmood: Dave Morton · Public domain
Shubman Gill: Bollywood Hungama · CC BY 3.0
Mohammed Shami: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Virat Kohli: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Shreyas Iyer: 247 Entertainment · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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