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England tour of India · 2024/25 · Men
9 Feb 2025 · ODI
Barabati Stadium, Cuttack · Venue photographRecorded result
India more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
England started on 21%; England batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Philip Saltcaught · Ravindra Jadeja · Varun Chakravarthy2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Ravindra Jadeja · b Varun Chakravarthy | 26 | 29 | 2 | 1 | 89.66 |
 Ben Duckettcaught · Hardik Pandya · Ravindra Jadeja10 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Hardik Pandya · b Ravindra Jadeja | 65 | 56 | 10 | 0 | 116.07 |
 Joe Rootcaught · Virat Kohli · Ravindra Jadeja6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Virat Kohli · b Ravindra Jadeja | 69 | 72 | 6 | 0 | 95.83 |
 Harry Brook |
England's chances ranged from 0% to 53% during the match (India: 47% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Shubman Gill · b Harshit Rana |
| 31 |
| 52 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 59.62 |
 Jos Buttlercaught · Shubman Gill · Hardik Pandya2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shubman Gill · b Hardik Pandya | 34 | 35 | 2 | 0 | 97.14 |
|---|
| Liam Livingstonerun out · Shreyas Iyer, KL Rahul · Mohammed Shami 2 fours · 2 sixes | run out · Shreyas Iyer, KL Rahul | 41 | 32 | 2 | 2 | 128.13 |
|---|
 Jamie Overtoncaught · Shubman Gill · Ravindra Jadeja0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shubman Gill · b Ravindra Jadeja | 6 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 60.00 |
|---|
| Gus Atkinsoncaught · Virat Kohli · Mohammed Shami 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Virat Kohli · b Mohammed Shami | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 42.86 |
|---|
 Adil Rashidrun out · KL Rahul, Ravindra Jadeja, Harshit Rana · Harshit Rana3 fours · 0 sixes | run out · KL Rahul, Ravindra Jadeja, Harshit Rana | 14 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 280.00 |
|---|
 Mark Woodrun out · KL Rahul · Mohammed Shami0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · KL Rahul | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Saqib Mahmoodnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 12 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Mohammed Shami0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.5 | 0 | 66 | 1 | 8.43 | 2 | 0 |
| Harshit Rana0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 62 | 1 | 6.89 | 2 | 0 |
 Hardik Pandya0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 53 | 1 | 7.57 | 1 | 0 |
| Varun Chakravarthy0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 54 | 1 | 5.40 | 0 | 1 |
 Ravindra Jadeja1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 35 | 3 | 3.50 | 1 | 0 |
 Axar Patel0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 5.33 | 6 | 0 |
1-81 (Philip Salt, 10.5) · 2-102 (Ben Duckett, 15.5) · 3-168 (Harry Brook, 29.4) · 4-219 (Jos Buttler, 38.4) · 5-248 (Joe Root, 42.3) · 6-258 (Jamie Overton, 45.0) · 7-272 (Gus Atkinson, 47.1) · 8-297 (Adil Rashid, 48.5) · 9-304 (Liam Livingstone, 49.4) · 10-304 (Mark Wood, 49.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 9 | 15/0 |
| 3 | 8 | 23/0 |
| 4 | 5 | 28/0 |
| 5 | 7 | 35/0 |
| 6 | 9 | 44/0 |
| 7 | 10 | 54/0 |
| 8 | 8 | 62/0 |
| 9 | 4 | 66/0 |
| 10 | 9 | 75/0 |
| 11 | 6 | 81/1 |
| 12 | 5 | 86/1 |
| 13 | 3 | 89/1 |
| 14 | 6 | 95/1 |
| 15 | 3 | 98/1 |
| 16 | 4 | 102/2 |
| 17 | 2 | 104/2 |
| 18 | 4 | 108/2 |
| 19 | 8 | 116/2 |
| 20 | 2 | 118/2 |
| 21 | 7 | 125/2 |
| 22 | 5 | 130/2 |
| 23 | 5 | 135/2 |
| 24 | 0 | 135/2 |
| 25 | 3 | 138/2 |
| 26 | 5 | 143/2 |
| 27 | 7 | 150/2 |
| 28 | 8 | 158/2 |
| 29 | 7 | 165/2 |
| 30 | 4 | 169/3 |
| 31 | 7 | 176/3 |
| 32 | 4 | 180/3 |
| 33 | 6 | 186/3 |
| 34 | 5 | 191/3 |
| 35 | 9 | 200/3 |
| 36 | 5 | 205/3 |
| 37 | 3 | 208/3 |
| 38 | 8 | 216/3 |
| 39 | 7 | 223/4 |
| 40 | 7 | 230/4 |
| 41 | 8 | 238/4 |
| 42 | 9 | 247/4 |
| 43 | 3 | 250/5 |
| 44 | 6 | 256/5 |
| 45 | 2 | 258/6 |
| 46 | 3 | 261/6 |
| 47 | 11 | 272/6 |
| 48 | 15 | 287/7 |
| 49 | 10 | 297/8 |
| 50 | 7 | 304/10 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Hardik Pandya: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Axar Patel: Anand Anil · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jos Buttler: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jamie Overton: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Mark Wood: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
KL Rahul: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Rohit Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ravindra Jadeja: SR Vlogs · CC BY 3.0
Philip Salt: Dave Morton · Public domain
Adil Rashid: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Saqib Mahmood: Dave Morton · Public domain
Shubman Gill: Bollywood Hungama · CC BY 3.0
Mohammed Shami: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Virat Kohli: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Shreyas Iyer: 247 Entertainment · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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