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New Zealand tour of England · 2026 · Men
25 Jun 2026 · Test
Trent Bridge · Venue photographRecorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 119 past Tests it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings, plus how often Tests at this ground end in a draw. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tom Lathamcaught · Jamie Smith · Ben Stokes15 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jamie Smith · b Ben Stokes | 151 | 214 | 15 | 0 | 70.56 |
| Devon Conwaycaught · MD Fisher · Joe Root 22 fours · 3 sixes | caught · MD Fisher · b Joe Root | 157 | 224 | 22 | 3 | 70.09 |
| Henry Nichollscaught · Jamie Smith · Jofra Archer 6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jamie Smith · b Jofra Archer | 36 | 48 | 6 | 0 | 75.00 |
 Rachin Ravindracaught · Jamie Smith · Gus Atkinson1 fours · 0 sixes |
| caught · Jamie Smith · b Gus Atkinson |
| 7 |
| 22 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 31.82 |
 William O’Rourkecaught · Emilio Gay · Ben Stokes4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Emilio Gay · b Ben Stokes | 19 | 38 | 4 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Daryl Mitchellcaught · Jamie Smith · Ben Stokes 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jamie Smith · b Ben Stokes | 11 | 33 | 1 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
 Tom Blundelllbw · Shoaib Bashir4 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Shoaib Bashir | 30 | 67 | 4 | 0 | 44.78 |
|---|
| Mitchell Santnercaught · Jacob Bethell · Ben Stokes 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Jacob Bethell · b Ben Stokes | 4 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| Nathan Smithcaught and bowled · Shoaib Bashir 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Shoaib Bashir | 6 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 21.43 |
|---|
 Blair Ticknernot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 6 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Ben Searslbw · Jofra Archer 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Jofra Archer | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 0 · noballs: 4 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Atkinson3 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 21.0 | 3 | 79 | 1 | 3.76 | 0 | 0 |
 Jofra Archer1 maidens · 0 wides · 3 no-balls | 19.5 | 1 | 75 | 2 | 3.78 | 0 | 3 |
| Josh Tongue6 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 21.0 | 6 | 75 | 0 | 3.57 | 0 | 1 |
| Shoaib Bashir2 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 25.0 | 2 | 105 | 2 | 4.20 | 0 | 0 |
 Ben Stokes3 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 21.0 | 3 | 70 | 4 | 3.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Jacob Bethell0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 4.50 | 0 | 0 |
 Joe Root0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 2.33 | 0 | 0 |
1-317 (Tom Latham, 72.1) · 2-319 (Devon Conway, 73.1) · 3-361 (Rachin Ravindra, 84.0) · 4-361 (Henry Nicholls, 84.1) · 5-392 (Daryl Mitchell, 94.3) · 6-393 (William O’Rourke, 97.0) · 7-413 (Mitchell Santner, 101.0) · 8-434 (Nathan Smith, 113.3) · 9-435 (Tom Blundell, 114.0) · 10-438 (Ben Sears, 114.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 5/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 9/0 |
| 4 | 5 | 14/0 |
| 5 | 7 | 21/0 |
| 6 | 4 | 25/0 |
| 7 | 1 | 26/0 |
| 8 | 3 | 29/0 |
| 9 | 7 | 36/0 |
| 10 | 9 | 45/0 |
| 11 | 6 | 51/0 |
| 12 | 0 | 51/0 |
| 13 | 3 | 54/0 |
| 14 | 0 | 54/0 |
| 15 | 0 | 54/0 |
| 16 | 2 | 56/0 |
| 17 | 4 | 60/0 |
| 18 | 1 | 61/0 |
| 19 | 3 | 64/0 |
| 20 | 6 | 70/0 |
| 21 | 6 | 76/0 |
| 22 | 9 | 85/0 |
| 23 | 3 | 88/0 |
| 24 | 6 | 94/0 |
| 25 | 3 | 97/0 |
| 26 | 4 | 101/0 |
| 27 | 2 | 103/0 |
| 28 | 5 | 108/0 |
| 29 | 7 | 115/0 |
| 30 | 5 | 120/0 |
| 31 | 11 | 131/0 |
| 32 | 1 | 132/0 |
| 33 | 1 | 133/0 |
| 34 | 2 | 135/0 |
| 35 | 2 | 137/0 |
| 36 | 7 | 144/0 |
| 37 | 1 | 145/0 |
| 38 | 4 | 149/0 |
| 39 | 7 | 156/0 |
| 40 | 1 | 157/0 |
| 41 | 7 | 164/0 |
| 42 | 5 | 169/0 |
| 43 | 1 | 170/0 |
| 44 | 6 | 176/0 |
| 45 | 4 | 180/0 |
| 46 | 5 | 185/0 |
| 47 | 1 | 186/0 |
| 48 | 3 | 189/0 |
| 49 | 4 | 193/0 |
| 50 | 4 | 197/0 |
| 51 | 9 | 206/0 |
| 52 | 0 | 206/0 |
| 53 | 2 | 208/0 |
| 54 | 5 | 213/0 |
| 55 | 2 | 215/0 |
| 56 | 8 | 223/0 |
| 57 | 5 | 228/0 |
| 58 | 5 | 233/0 |
| 59 | 4 | 237/0 |
| 60 | 12 | 249/0 |
| 61 | 13 | 262/0 |
| 62 | 6 | 268/0 |
| 63 | 8 | 276/0 |
| 64 | 6 | 282/0 |
| 65 | 6 | 288/0 |
| 66 | 4 | 292/0 |
| 67 | 4 | 296/0 |
| 68 | 10 | 306/0 |
| 69 | 1 | 307/0 |
| 70 | 4 | 311/0 |
| 71 | 4 | 315/0 |
| 72 | 2 | 317/0 |
| 73 | 2 | 319/1 |
| 74 | 4 | 323/2 |
| 75 | 9 | 332/2 |
| 76 | 4 | 336/2 |
| 77 | 7 | 343/2 |
| 78 | 3 | 346/2 |
| 79 | 2 | 348/2 |
| 80 | 1 | 349/2 |
| 81 | 4 | 353/2 |
| 82 | 0 | 353/2 |
| 83 | 1 | 354/2 |
| 84 | 7 | 361/3 |
| 85 | 2 | 363/4 |
| 86 | 7 | 370/4 |
| 87 | 0 | 370/4 |
| 88 | 2 | 372/4 |
| 89 | 9 | 381/4 |
| 90 | 0 | 381/4 |
| 91 | 1 | 382/4 |
| 92 | 4 | 386/4 |
| 93 | 5 | 391/4 |
| 94 | 1 | 392/4 |
| 95 | 1 | 393/5 |
| 96 | 0 | 393/5 |
| 97 | 0 | 393/6 |
| 98 | 2 | 395/6 |
| 99 | 0 | 395/6 |
| 100 | 14 | 409/6 |
| 101 | 4 | 413/7 |
| 102 | 0 | 413/7 |
| 103 | 2 | 415/7 |
| 104 | 0 | 415/7 |
| 105 | 1 | 416/7 |
| 106 | 0 | 416/7 |
| 107 | 0 | 416/7 |
| 108 | 2 | 418/7 |
| 109 | 4 | 422/7 |
| 110 | 4 | 426/7 |
| 111 | 4 | 430/7 |
| 112 | 2 | 432/7 |
| 113 | 1 | 433/7 |
| 114 | 2 | 435/9 |
| 115 | 3 | 438/10 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jofra Archer: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jamie Smith: Dave Morton · Public domain
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
William O’Rourke: Dave Morton · Public domain
Rachin Ravindra: JaumeBG · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Ben Stokes: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Tom Blundell: www.davidmolloyphotography.com · CC BY 2.0
Blair Tickner: Dave Morton · Public domain
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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